Reference Date: 21-November-2024

Wheat crop production in 2025 forecast at below-average level due to unfavourable weather conditions

Planting of 2025 winter cereal crops, mostly wheat and barley, to be harvested from July, took place last October. The area sown is estimated at 28.4 million hectares, below the average level. Planting of 2025 spring cereals, mostly wheat and maize, to be harvested from August, will start next February 2025.

According to the Russian Ministry of Agriculture, national wheat production is forecast at 80 million tonnes, below the five-year average, due to dry weather conditions.

Below-average cereal production harvested in 2024

Harvesting of 2024 winter cereal crops finalized last August, while the harvesting of the 2024 spring crops, mainly wheat and maize, will be completed in November. According to preliminary official data, 2024 output of wheat and barley is estimated at below-average levels of about 82 million tonnes and 20 million tonnes, respectively, mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions, which negatively affected yields. Production of maize is estimated at 13 million tonnes, below the five ‑ year average level.

Aggregate 2024 production (winter and spring crops) is set at about 124 million tonnes, 7 percent below the five ‑ year average level.

Total cereal exports forecast above-average in 2024/25

Aggregate cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 58 million tonnes, about 18 percent above the five ‑ year average volume. Shipments of wheat, accounting on average for 80 percent of total cereal exports, are forecast at an above-average level of 48 million tonnes, amid the high output obtained in 2023. Barley exports are expected at an above ‑ average level of 6 million tonnes, while shipments of maize are forecast at a slightly below ‑ average level of 4 million tonnes.

Export prices of wheat declined compared to year-earlier levels

Export prices of milling wheat showed a declining trend between June 2023 and October 2024, as a result of the bumper 2022 and 2023 national wheat harvests and large domestic availabilities provided a significant downward pressure on prices.

Between June and October 2024, export prices for milling wheat decreased by 10 percent due to declining wheat stocks and were still down by 15 percent year-on-year, supported by the still ample stocks.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .