Reference Date: 02-August-2024

Below-average area harvested of paddy between April and June 2024

Planting of the 2024/25 main paddy crop, accounting for about 60 percent of the annual output, started in April and will continue until September in some areas. Precipitation amounts increased from mid-May onwards over most of the country, providing conducive conditions for crop development and boosting yield prospects. However, in some central and southern provinces, below-average rainfall amounts persisted until early July, negatively affecting crops at critical panicle initiation and flowering stages. In these areas, as of early July 2024, remote sensing images indicate poor vegetation conditions (yellow, orange and red areas in VHI map). The passage of Typhon Aghon over Luzon Island in late May 2024 caused some flooding and affected crops in localized areas of Calabarzon and MIMAROPA provinces. According to the Department of Agriculture, about 6 000 hectares of cropping land have been affected. The 2024/25 dry-season paddy crop, accounting for about 40 percent of the annual output, is expected to be planted from October.

The 2023/24 paddy season concluded in June 2024, with the completion of dry-season harvests. Official assessments indicate that during the second half of the dry-season crop cycle, which unfolded between April and June 2024, area harvested of paddy amounted to 891 770 hectares, 6 percent below the five-year average of the same period due to El Niño-related setbacks. The 2023/24 aggregate paddy production is estimated at 19.8 million tonnes, marginally above the five-year average reflecting the above average main output harvested in 2023.

Planting of the 2024/25 main maize crop started in April and will continue in some areas until August. The area sown is forecast below the five-year average, due to dry weather conditions and planting time and the high risk of Fall Armyworm infestations, which discouraged farmers from planting. The 2024/25 second maize crop will be planted from October onwards.

The 2023/24 maize cropping season finalized in May 2024 and the production is estimated at 8.1 million tonnes, marginally below the five-year average,

Above-average cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 11.1 million tonnes, almost 10 percent above the average. Imports of rice are forecast at record 4.1 million tonnes in calendar year 2024, up 6 percent from 2023. Maize imports are forecast at 1.1 million tonnes, well above the five‑year average, mainly due to strong demand by the feed industry. Wheat imports, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at a near average 6.1 million tonnes.

Domestic rice prices at near-record level in June 2024

Domestic prices of regular and well‑milled rice, the country’s main staple, rose sharply between February 2023 and April 2024, reaching record levels. The increases occurred in the context of increases in international prices and of concerns about the effect of dry weather conditions on the 2023/2024 paddy crop. In May and June 2024, prices stabilized, reflecting improved precipitation amounts for the 2024 main paddy crop, but they remained at near-record levels.

The government has implemented several measures to curb rice price increases, such as reducing tariffs on imports and supporting domestic production with funding for agricultural inputs and machinery. In addition, to improve access to food for the most vulnerable households the government rolled out the Community Assistance and Rice Discount Program . This program targets approximately 28 million people (about 10 percent of the country’s population), providing vouchers to purchase 25 kg of rice per month at a discounted rate between January and December 2024.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .