Reference Date: 29-January-2026

Cereal crop production forecast at average level in 2025/26

Harvesting of the 2025/26 Main season paddy crop, which accounts for about 60 percent of the total annual output, finalized in December 2025 and production is estimated to be below the five-year average. Although the area under rice expanded, crop losses were caused by several typhoons, including Super Typhoons Fung-wong (locally known as Uwan) and Kalmaegi (locally known as Tino), in parts of Luzon and Visayas islands in October and November 2025. Harvesting of the 2025/26 Secondary paddy crop, which accounts for about 40 percent of the total annual output, is ongoing and is expected to finalize in June 2026. The area planted is forecast to remain close to the average, mostly supported by government programmes aimed at assisting paddy producers. Remote sensing data, as of early January 2026, indicates generally good vegetation conditions across most of the country, inferring to favourable yield prospects. The 2025/26 aggregate paddy production is preliminarily forecast at 19.7 million tonnes, close to the average level. Harvesting of the 2025 Main season maize crop finalized in September 2025 and production is officially estimated at an average level of 4.8 million tonnes. Localized crop losses occurred in parts of Luzon and Visayas islands due to the negative effects of flooding and typhoons. Planting of the 2025 Secondary season maize crop finalized in December 2025; the area planted is estimated to be close to the average level and crop conditions are generally favourable.

Weather forecasts point to high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts in February and March 2026 over most of the country, associated with the prevailing La Niña event. If this forecast materializes, conditions are likely to be conducive for crop development. However, excessive rains could trigger localized floods and affect crops at maturing or harvesting stages, with negative effects on the final production. In addition, above‑average temperatures are forecast in central and southern parts of the country, with high risks for pest and disease outbreaks.

Above‑average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025/26

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 13.7 million tonnes, about 20 percent above the average. Imports of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at 7 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, mostly driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat‑based food products. Maize imports are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, well above the average, due to strong demand by the domestic feed industry. Imports of rice are estimated at 3.6 million tonnes in the 2025 calendar year and forecast at 3.9 million tonnes for the 2026 calendar year.

Domestic prices of rice lower year‑on‑year in December 2025

Domestic prices of regular and well‑milled rice, the country’s main staple, followed a sustained downward trend from May 2024, when they reached record levels, through August 2025, primarily reflecting adequate market availability from the average production harvested in 2024 as well as large imports in 2024 and the first half of 2025. In addition, the government has implemented a series of policy measures aimed at containing the increases of rice prices since early 2025. Measures included lowering tariffs on rice imports, the declaration of a food security emergency on rice in February 2025, which allowed the release of buffer stocks held by the National Food Authority into the markets. In addition, several downward adjustments to the Maximum Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) for rice have been implemented since early 2025, with the most recent revision effective from 16 July 2025, reducing the MSRP from PHP 45/kg (USD 1.03/kg) to PHP 43/kg (USD 0.45/kg) and the distribution of subsidized well‑milled rice to vulnerable households through state‑run retail outlets. In November and December 2025, prices of rice increased marginally, but remained between 10 and 15 percent lower than the elevated levels a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .