Reference Date: 25-June-2024

Favourable prospects for 2024 paddy production

The 2024 minor season paddy crop is currently at development and flowering stages and crop conditions are generally favourable in key producing western and central regions (green areas in NDVI anomaly map). Planting of the 2024 main season paddy crop will start in July 2024. Weather forecasts point to near‑average precipitation amounts between July and September, boosting yield expectations of the minor paddy crop and supporting planting operations of the main paddy crop. According to the Governmental Institute of Agricultural Innovation, the area sown of the 2024 aggregate paddy crops is forecast at an above‑average level of 100 000 hectares, substantially increasing from the 2023 level due to adequate soil moisture and higher year‑on‑year prices at planting time of both minor and main paddy crops.

Planting of the minor season maize crop is ongoing and production prospects are generally favourable due to adequate soil moisture and forecast of favourable weather conditions in the coming months. Area sown is preliminarily forecast to be slightly above the average, but lower year‑on‑year prices prevented a further increase in plantings.

Average cereal import requirements expected in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (August/July) are expected at an average level of 785 000 tonnes as the increasing demand will be partially covered by ample carryover stocks due to abundant cereal imports in 2022/23.

Wholesale prices of rice higher year‑on‑year in May 2024

Rice prices have been increasing since August 2023 and were 15 percent above their year‑earlier levels as of May 2024. The high price levels reflect a series of factors, including a decline in 2023 harvests, on account of dry weather conditions, and high international prices. By contrast, prices of maize declined sharply in the first quarter of 2024 weighed by large imports and low maize quotations in international markets. In May 2024, maize prices were nearly 10 percent lower compared to a year before.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .