Reference Date: 23-September-2024

Cereal output forecast at well above-average level in 2024

Harvesting of 2024 paddy and maize crops is ongoing and is expected to be completed by mid-December 2024. Precipitation amounts during the season have been generally adequate and well distributed, with an expected positive effect on yields. Heavy rains in July and August triggered in parts of Balochistan and Sindh provinces, causing localized crop losses and damage to housing and agricultural infrastructure. Paddy production is forecast well above the five-year average, primarily due to large sowings. Maize production is forecast at a near-average level as bumper yields are expected to offset a contraction in sowings attributed to low farm-gate prices, which discouraged some farmers to plant. Production of the 2024 wheat crop, harvested in June, is officially estimated at a record level of 31.4 million tonnes, reflecting large sowings and excellent yields supported by adequate supply of irrigation water and widespread use of high yielding seed varieties. Overall, total 2024 cereal output is forecast at a well above-average level of 56.4 million tonnes.

Wheat import requirements in 2024/25 forecast significantly below the high five-year average volume

Wheat import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast significantly below the high five-year average, mostly owing to the record production in 2024. Although the country is traditionally a wheat exporter, unusually large volumes of wheat were imported between 2020/21 and 2023/24 when domestic availability was tight due to below-average outputs gathered between 2018 and 2020, stock losses from severe floods in 2022 and rising demand driven by demographic growth.

Exports of rice, the country’s major cereal export, are forecast at 5.2 million tonnes in 2024, 15 percent above the 2023 level. Exports of maize in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at an average level of 500 000 tonnes.

Wheat flour prices well below year-earlier levels in August 2024

Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, declined sharply between March and August 2024 owing to the abundant market supply from the 2024 harvest. Additionally, the Punjab provincial government, which had previously purchased wheat from farmers at harvest time, at a minimum support price, decided not to procure wheat from the 2024 harvest. This, resulted in an increased supply in the market, exerting additional downward pressure on prices. Last August, prices were on average 35 percent below the high levels of a year earlier, when they were underpinned by generally tight market availability.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, food inflation has been generally declining since mid-2023 and it was estimated at 1.5 percent in July 2024, significantly below the 15.7 percent registered a year earlier.

Acute food security improving between July and November 2024

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 7.9 million people are estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between July and November 2024, down from the 8.6 million people during the March to June 2024 period. The improvement is mostly due to the availability of a newly harvested 2024 wheat crop and the year-on-year decline in wheat flour prices, that enhanced households’ food access.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .