Reference Date: 06-February-2026

Area planted with 2026 wheat crop estimated at above-average level

Planting of the mostly irrigated 2026 wheat crop finalized last December and harvesting is expected to start in mid-March. The area planted is estimated above the five-year average, supported by near-record domestic prices of wheat flour and adequate soil moisture conditions at planting time. Farmers were also encouraged to plant wheat by government support measures, including the distribution of high-yielding seed varieties and an announcement last October that government procurement will resume for the 2026 wheat crop after a two-year suspension, with planned purchase of about 2.5 to 3 million tonnes of wheat grain at the minimum support price. Despite below-average precipitation amounts between October and mid-December 2025, vegetation conditions were average to above average in the main wheat cropping areas due to sufficient supply of irrigation water. Dry weather conditions caused some crop losses in Barani rainfed areas, which are mostly located in the northern parts of Punjab province and account for about 20 percent of total wheat plantings. However, in these areas precipitation amounts were close to the average in the third dekad of December and the third dekad of January helping replenish soil moisture levels and supporting crop growth. As of late-January 2026, remote sensing data indicate satisfactory vegetation conditions in most parts of the country (ASI map). Overall, the 2026 wheat production will depend on the performance of the rainy season until April 2026. Abundant rainfall amounts are needed to support proper crop development and to replenish main reservoirs that will be used for irrigating the 2026 main season crops from May onwards.

Above-average cereal production estimated in 2025

The 2025 cropping season finalized last December and the aggregate 2025 cereal production is estimated at 53 million tonnes, slightly above the average. Wheat crop production is estimated at 29 million tonnes, slightly above the average level, but 8 percent lower year-on-year, mainly reflecting a contraction in area planted due to low domestic prices at planting time and the removal of the minimum support price. Paddy production is estimated at 14 million tonnes, above the five-year average, but 4 percent below the 2024/25 harvest. Despite an above-average area planted, severe flooding caused crop losses, particularly in Punjab. Maize crop production is estimated at a slightly below-average level of 9.5 million tonnes as low farm-gate prices of maize grain prompted some farmers to shift to more profitable vegetables and cash crops, including mustard and pulses.

Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast significantly below five-year average

Wheat import requirements for the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at about 1.1 million tonnes, significantly below the five-year average. The reduced import needs reflect the above-average output obtained in 2025 and the large carryover stocks from the record production harvested in 2024. In 2024/25, wheat imports were just about 100 000 tonnes following the introduction, in July 2024, of a ban on imports of wheat grain and flour aimed at containing further price declines. With the ban still in effect as of January 2026, actual imports in 2025/26 may be lower than the forecast import requirements. In July 2025, the government also imposed a ban on exports of wheat flour, including flour produced with imported wheat, wheat products, refined flour and semolina, and the ban is still in place as of January 2026.

Exports of rice, the country’s major exportable cereal, are forecast at 4.8 million tonnes in calendar year 2026. Exports of maize in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at an average level of 500 000 tonnes.

Wheat flour prices at near-record level in January 2026

Domestic prices of wheat flour, the country’s main staple food, surged between July 2025 and January 2026 by about 50 to 90 percent in most markets, reaching near-record levels, as seasonal upward pressure was exacerbated by stock losses and market disruptions caused by floods and landslides in August and September 2025. In addition, the year-on-year decline in wheat production in 2025 and strong domestic demand exerted additional upward pressure on prices.

Acute food security improved between April and July 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 10 million people were estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and July 2025, down from 11 million people during the November 2024 to March 2025 period, mostly reflecting the above‑average 2025 cereal production. However, severe flooding in 2025 affected at least 5.8 million people, causing extensive damage to housing and infrastructures, and losses of livestock and food stocks, likely worsening acute food insecurity conditions. In addition, high domestic prices of wheat flour, amid limited livelihood opportunities are expected to erode purchasing power of the most vulnerable households limiting their access to food in the first half of 2026, before the 2026 wheat is harvested next April and May.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .