Reference Date: 28-August-2026

Rebound in cereal production in 2026

Cereal production in 2026 is expected to recover strongly from the low output in 2025, largely attributed to favourable weather conditions. The main summer crops were harvested by July, while the winter wheat crop is to be harvested from October.

Estimated at 155 000 tonnes, the 2026 cereal production is nearly 40 percent above the previous five‑year average and more than twice the 2025 outturn. Most of the increase stems from a sharp rise in maize production in the commercial sector, where yields nearly doubled compared with the previous five‑year average. The commercial sector typically accounts for about two‑thirds of national cereal output, but in 2026 its share rose to nearly 80 percent.

By contrast, cereal production in the communal sector was estimated to be below average in 2026, despite increasing by just over 20 percent year on year. Below‑average outputs were recorded across all cereal crops (maize, millet and sorghum) with maize registering the largest decrease. The Zambezi Region has been the only area of the country where production fell in 2026, driven by outbreaks of migratory red locust and heavy rainfall between February and April, which caused flooding and crop damage that particularly affected the maize crop.

Livestock conditions improve

Reflecting the overall conducive weather conditions in 2025/26, pasture and water availability improved. As a result, livestock body conditions have strengthened markedly across most of the country in 2026, with the northeast, central, eastern and southern regions reporting good to very good body conditions and the north-central regions reporting fair to good conditions.

Cereal import needs fall in the 2026/27 marketing year

The country is a net importer of cereals, with imports accounting for about two‑thirds of total national consumption requirements on average. Reflecting the upturn in 2026 domestic production, cereal import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (May/April) are estimated to be below both the five‑year average and the previous year's level.

Imports mostly comprise maize and wheat, sourced largely from South Africa (mainly maize) and the European Union (predominantly wheat). Import conditions are relatively favourable, particularly for maize as South Africa’s bumper harvest in 2026 has increased exportable supplies and exerted downward pressure on prices. International prices of wheat, which is also sourced from outside the subregion, have strengthened in recent months and remained above their year‑on‑year levels as of August 2026.

Food inflation eases in 2026

The annual food inflation rate was estimated at 3.7 percent in July 2026, down from 6.1 percent in the corresponding month of 2025, amid a deceleration in price increases across most food groups. The upturn in domestic production, combined with declining maize prices in South Africa, could ease cereal prices further in 2026. However, fuel prices have risen in 2026, in line with global price movements, and this has been a key driver of overall inflation price growth and may temper further declines in food price inflation.

Overall improvement in acute food insecurity

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 408 000 people (13 percent of the analysed population) were projected to face acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between April and June 2026, roughly half the number assessed over the same period in 2025. This improvement is attributed to the good 2025/26 agricultural season, which boosted agricultural ‑related employment opportunities and eased food prices.

Favourable weather conditions supported an upturn in the 2026 cereal harvest, along with improved grazing and water availability that strengthened livestock health, boosted reproduction rates and improved overall productivity. As a result, household incomes are expected to be bolstered by increased sales of livestock and livestock products, potentially supported by higher prices. In the Zambezi Region, however, pest infestation and flooding caused extensive crop losses and damage, likely exacerbating acute food insecurity in the area, contrasting with the overall improvement observed nationwide.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .