Reference Date: 09-July-2026

Uncertain production prospects for the 2027 main paddy crop

Planting operations of the 2027 main paddy crop began in June in Sabah State under generally adequate soil moisture conditions, which supported early crop establishment. In Peninsular Malaysia, the country’s main paddy-producing area, and in Sarawak State, planting is expected to start in August and October, respectively. Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of below‑average precipitation amounts between July and September 2026 across most of these areas, reflecting the influence of the ongoing El Niño event which is expected to strengthen during the second half of 2026 and persist at least until the January to March 2027 period. Depending on its intensity, El Niño may have a negative impact on both plantings and yields of the 2027 main season crop as well as limit the availability of irrigation water for the 2027 secondary crop to be planted from March 2027 onwards.

Paddy output in 2026 forecast below average

Aggregate 2026 paddy production is forecast to decline to 2.1 million tonnes, 4.5 percent below the five ‑year average, primarily reflecting reduced plantings and yields, as a result of flooding problems and dry weather conditions

Cereal import requirements forecast at above‑average level in 2026/27

The country relies on imports to meet domestic needs of cereals, as local production covers only about one‑ fourth of total national cereal consumption. For the 2026/27 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at 7.9 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average. Imports of maize, which constitute the bulk of total imports, are forecast at 4.2 million tonnes, about 10 percent above the average, reflecting the sustained demand by the poultry industry. Imports of wheat are forecast at 2 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the average, driven by strong domestic demand for bread and bakery products, supported by population growth and increasing tourist arrivals. Imports of rice in the 2026 calendar year are forecast at 1.7 million tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .