Reference Date: 07-May-2024

Dire food security situation in Ménaka Region due to conflict

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 1.37 million people are projected to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2024, including nearly 121 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency) and about 2 600 people in CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe). This represents a slight deterioration compared to the same period in 2023, when about 1.26 million people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance.

Conflict remains the key driver of acute food insecurity, with the first quarter of 2024 witnessing an intensification of violence against civilians compared to the same period in 2023. Civil insecurity has worsened particularly in northern areas, after the full withdrawal of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in December 2023, continuing to cause population displacements and disruption of livelihoods and markets. There is high concern for the food insecurity situation in the regions of Tombouctou, Ménaka, Gao and Kidal, where blockades by armed groups severely limit the movement of goods and people. In Ménaka Region, where about 65 percent of the population has been displaced and several localities remain inaccessible to humanitarian organizations, CH Phase 5 (Catastrophe) levels of acute food insecurity are projected for the upcoming lean season.

Land preparation for 2024 cereal crops underway

Land preparation for 2024 cereal crops is ongoing. Planting operations of coarse grains (maize, millet and sorghum), and the main season rice crop are expected to start in the weeks ahead. Weather forecasts for the May to July period indicate a high probability of average to above‑average rainfall amounts, which are expected to benefit germination and early development of crops.

Cereal production in 2023 estimated at near‑average level

Harvesting operations of 2023 coarse grain crops concluded last December, while harvesting of the 2023 main season rice crop was completed in February 2024. Aggregate cereal production in 2023 is estimated at an average level of about 10 million tonnes. Cereal production was constrained by an erratic rainfall distribution, which affected yields, and by a reduction in the area planted due to insecurity in central and northern areas.

Prices of cereals near or below year‑earlier levels in most markets

Wholesale prices of locally produced millet decreased seasonally by 5 to 25 percent between September 2023 and February 2024 in monitored markets, while prices of sorghum registered declines of 15 to 35 percent during the same period. In March 2024, prices of millet and sorghum recorded month‑on‑month increases of up to 10 and 40 percent, respectively, but they remained near or below their year‑earlier levels.

Wholesale prices of local rice registered seasonal decreases of up to 35 percent between October 2023 and February 2024, while prices of imported rice remained stable or rose by about 15 percent. In March 2024, prices of locally produced rice rose by up to 20 percent month‑on‑month, while prices of imported rice remained stable. Prices of both local and imported rice were near their values a year earlier, apart from the market in Gao, where they were 20 and 35 percent, respectively, higher on a yearly basis, mainly reflecting localized production shortfalls and conflict‑related market disruptions.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .