Reference Date: 21-March-2024

Prolonged dry weather conditions raise concern for 2024 cereal production

Planting of 2024 winter crops, almost entirely rainfed, was concluded last December. Despite some rain in February, cumulative rainfall amounts have been below average until early March 2024 resulting, together with above‑average temperatures, in widespread drought conditions (ASI map). Soil moisture deficits caused severe stress to crops during their vegetative stage. However, water levels of the major dams have remained low compared to the average, limiting the availability of water for irrigation. Given the current weather situation, production prospects for 2024 winter crops are unfavourable.

Total cereal production in 2023 is estimated at about 5.6 million tonnes, with a substantial recovery if compared to the 2022 harvest which was affected by a severe drought, but still about 15 percent below the five‑year average due to widespread and prolonged dry weather conditions. Wheat and barley production in 2023 is estimated at 4.1 and 1.3 million tonnes, about 17 percent and 20 percent, respectively, below five‑year average.

Government subsidizes imports of soft wheat

The country relies heavily on cereal imports to cover its consumption needs. Reflecting the 2023 below‑average production, the 2023/24 cereal import requirement (July/June) is forecast at 9.9 million tonnes, about 24 percent above the five‑year average.

Wheat constitutes about 60 percent of cereal imports and imports are estimated at 6.1 million tonnes, almost 22 percent above the five‑year average. Since the end of 2023, the share of wheat imports from the Russian Federation started to increase with a concurrent decrease of imports from the European Union.

Since November 2021, the country suspended import duties on soft (common) and durum wheat to encourage stock building. In December 2023 , the government introduced import subsidies on soft wheat used to produce bread and these subsidies are expected to be in place up to April 2024. At the end of January 2024 , the government has also established a mechanism to build wheat stocks by setting a storage subsidy of MAD 2.5/quintal of wheat stored for each 15 days.

Food price inflation declined in early 2024

Despite the country’s high import dependency rate, the transmission of high international prices on domestic markets is mitigated by the government’s subsidies. In 2024, the government plans to continue to subsidize prices of soft wheat flour, sugar and butane gas.

In January 2024, the annual inflation rate was estimated at 2.3 percent following a gradual decrease of price levels from about 10 percent registered in February 2023. The annual food inflation was estimated at 4.3 percent in January 2024, steadily decreasing from the peak of 20 percent in February 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .