Reference Date: 02-February-2026

Favourable early season conditions for cereal plantings in 2025/26

Planting operations of the 2026 winter cereal crops started in late December 2025 due to a delayed onset of the rains. However, abundant rainfall amounts in December increased water reservoir levels for irrigation across key producing regions and improved soil moisture, supporting crop establishment and early development. According to geospatial data, as of the second dekad of January 2026, the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) indicates favourable crop conditions. Weather forecasts point to near‑average rainfall amounts until April, although localized rainfall deficits may adversely affect crop development in eastern and central regions.

Below‑average cereal production estimated in 2025 due to prolonged dry conditions

Cereal production in 2025 is officially estimated at about 4.5 million tonnes, around 13 percent below the average, largely due to prolonged and severe dry weather conditions. Cumulative precipitation amounts between December 2024 and February 2025 were more than 60 percent lower than the long‑term average in key cereal‑producing regions. Rainfall amounts increased in March and April 2025, but they were late and insufficient to replenish soil moisture levels and did not allow an adequate recovery of yields.

Above‑average cereal imports forecast in 2025/26 marketing year (July/June)

Cereal consumption needs are largely met through imports and cereal import requirements for the marketing year 2025/26 (July/June) are forecast at about 11 million tonnes, around 20 percent above average, due to the below‑average domestic production harvested in 2025. The government extended the wheat import subsidy measure, which was initially effective until December 2025, to April 2026, with the aim of stabilizing soft wheat prices and ensuring an adequate supply of wheat flour for bread production.

Annual food inflation increased slightly in 2025

Annual food inflation increased in 2025 by 1 percent compared to the previous year, largely driven by higher prices of fresh meat and fish, while prices of cereals have decreased.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .