Reference Date: 03-February-2025

Main maha cereal crops plantings estimated at an above-average level in 2025

Planting of the 2025 main maha paddy crop, accounting for about 65 percent of the annual output, finalized last December with a three-week delay as farmers carried out replanting operations after severe flooding last November caused crop losses in northeastern areas. Plantings are estimated at an above-average level, driven by attractive domestic prices at planting time and official support measures. Remote sensing data from early January 2025 indicated satisfactory vegetation conditions in most of the country, inferring generally favourable yield prospects for the paddy crop (ASI map). However, in Polonnaruwa district, accounting for about 15 percent of total rice sowings, low rainfall quantities since early December 2024 negatively affected crop emergence and early development. The 2025 secondary yala paddy crop, accounting for about 35 percent of the annual output, will be planted from next April.

The 2025 main maha maize crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the annual output, is currently at vegetative and flowering stages and crop conditions are generally favourable. Plantings are estimated at an above-average level, supported by strong demand from the local feed industry. The 2025 secondary yala maize crop, accounting for about 10 percent of the annual output, will be planted in April.

Weather forecasts point to above average precipitation amounts from February to April 2025 over most of the country, likely providing conducive conditions for crop development. However, excessive rains could trigger localized floods and overcast conditions affect crops at maturing or harvesting stages, with negative effects on the final production. In addition, hotter-than-average temperatures are forecast in some areas, elevating risks for pest and disease outbreaks.

Crop production in 2024 estimated close to low five-year average

The 2024 cropping season finalized last September, and the aggregate cereal production is estimated at near-average 4.9 million tonnes. Despite well above-average sowings, production was constrained by floods, pests and diseases outbreaks that caused crop losses, especially in important cereal producing districts of Batticaloa and Ampara.

Below-average cereal import requirements forecast in 2025

Cereal import requirements in the 2025 calendar year are forecast at a below-average level of 1.4 million tonnes. Imports of wheat, which accounts for the largest share of total cereal imports, are forecast at a near-average level of 1.1 million tonnes. Imports of maize are expected at an above average level, driven by a recovery in the poultry and livestock sector with the gradual recovery of economic activities following the 2021-2022 financial crisis. Imports of rice in calendar year 2025 are forecast at 50 000 tonnes, reflecting expectations of an above-average production in 2025.

Domestic prices of rice higher year-on-year in December 2024

D omestic prices of rice, a key staple food, were generally stable from January to August 2024, reflecting adequate market availability from the 2024 harvest. Then, between September and November, prices began rising, surging by 10 percent month-on-month in November alone. This increase was driven by shortage of red rice variety, which boosted demand for white rice, along with concerns over the impact of floods on the 2025 main paddy crops. By last December, prices of rice were 10 percent higher year-on-year. Domestic prices of wheat flour, another key staple food, declined between July and September 2024, weighed down by a short-lived appreciation of the domestic currency, which made wheat imports cheaper. Since last October, prices of wheat flour have remained stable, and they were 10 percent lower year-on-year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .