Reference Date: 18-June-2025

Favourable production prospects for 2025 long‑rains main season crops

In major uni-modal rainfall growing areas of Central, Rift Valley and Western provinces, the 2025 long-rains main season cereal crops were planted in March and April and will be harvested from October onwards. Seasonal rains had a timely onset in March and have been characterized so far by well above-average amounts. In high potential cropping areas of the southwestern “maize basket” (Bungoma, Lugari, Kericho, Nakuru, Nandi North, Nandi South, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu counties), cumulative rainfall amounts between March and late May were up to 40 percent above the long-term average. According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Predictions and Application Centre (ICPAC), above-average precipitation amounts are expected in these areas between June and September, with a likely positive impact on yields.

In marginal bi-modal rainfall southeastern and coastal areas, where crops were planted last March and will be harvested from July, rainfall amounts between March and May have been also well above the average.

The abundant precipitation received across all growing areas benefited vegetation conditions (see ASI map for cropland) and production prospects are favourable.

Above‑average rangeland conditions benefitting livestock

In northern and northeastern pastoral areas, the March-May long-rains were also characterized by abundant rainfall amounts, estimated at 35-55 percent above the long-term average. The abundant precipitation amounts led to a substantial regeneration of rangeland resources and resulted in a significant improvement of vegetation conditions, which are currently well above the average (see ASI map for grassland). Livestock trekking distances from grazing fields to watering points declined by 15-70 percent between February, at the end of the dry season, and April, when they were 15-65 percent shorter than average in most of these areas. Due to the abundant pasture and water availability, livestock body conditions substantially improved with the start of the rainy season and, as of April, they were reported to be fair to good. Conception rates and milk production in April were estimated to be about 30 percent above the average.

Prices of maize at high levels in southeastern and coastal marginal agriculture areas

In Eldoret and Bungoma markets, located in southwestern key growing areas, maize prices seasonally increased between February and May 2025 by 16-18 percent. Prices in May were about 15 percent above their year-earlier levels, mainly due to tight domestic availability.

In southeastern and coastal marginal agriculture areas, where substantial crop production shortfalls occurred during the October-December short rains season due to below-average rainfall amounts and outbreaks of pests, including Fall Armyworm, maize prices in April were on average about 30 percent higher year-on-year.

In pastoral areas, livestock prices increased on average by about 10 percent between February and April 2025 as improved pasture and water availability had a positive impact on livestock body condition. April prices were on average 10 percent lower than one year earlier, mainly as a result of declines in late 2024 due to a poor October-December 2024 short rains season which affected animal body condition. In these areas, maize prices in April were on average about 5 percent above their year-earlier levels, due to a tight domestic availability. With livestock prices having declined during the last 12 months while cereal prices increased, the livestock‑to‑cereal terms of trade for pastoralists have deteriorated and, in April 2024, they were on average 13 percent lower than one year earlier. For example, in Isiolo County, the equivalent in maize of a medium‑sized goat decreased from 113 kg in April 2024 to 94 kg in April 2025.

Abundant March-May long-rains benefitting the food security situation

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 2.2 million people (13 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis]) between February and March 2025 in the 23 counties classified as rural Arid and Semi‑Arid Lands (ASALs), covering most of the country. The food security situation was expected to deteriorate between April and June 2025, with the number of people projected to face severe acute food insecurity increasing by almost 30 percent to 2.8 million (17 percent of the population).

However, this projection incorporated weather forecasts pointing to below-average rainfall amounts during the March-May long rains, which did not materialize. According to the National Drought Management Authority (NDMA), the food consumption score, a composite index based on households’ dietary diversity, food consumption frequency, and relative nutritional value of different food groups, improved between February, at the end of the dry season, and April across central and northern pastoral and agropastoral areas, mainly due to the positive impact of abundant rainfall amounts on livestock condition and prices and on milk availability. Despite some dwindling of cereal stocks in southeastern marginal agriculture areas, the number of people currently facing Phase 3 or higher levels of acute food insecurity is likely to be lower than the IPC projection of 2.8 million.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .