Reference Date: 03-July-2025

Winter wheat production forecast near-average in 2025

Harvesting of the 2025 minor winter wheat crop, planted last October, is ongoing, while planting of the 2025 main spring wheat, barley, and maize crops, to be harvested from mid‑August, started in early June. Warmer‑than‑average weather between December 2024 and February 2025, combined with below‑average snow cover in key northern grain‑producing provinces, including Kostanay, Akmola, and North Kazakhstan, has raised concerns about the overall 2025 cereal output. In the Karatal region, a lack of precipitation between April and June has led to forecasts of below‑average wheat yields. However, as of July, winter wheat production is forecast to be near the five‑year average, supported by adequate rainfall between May and June in the main producing region of Turkestan.

Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2024

The total 2024 cereal production is estimated above the five‑year average, driven by overall favourable weather conditions. The aggregate production of the wheat spring and winter crops is estimated at 18.6 million tonnes in 2024, about 40 percent above the five‑year average and marking a 10‑year record high. Barley output in 2024 is estimated at a above‑average level of 3.8 million tonnes.

Wheat exports forecast at above‑average level in 2024/25

Total cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 11.8 million tonnes, over 25 percent above the five‑year average volume, driven by the above‑average 2024 harvest. Exports of wheat and barley are forecast at 10 million tonnes and 600 000 tonnes, respectively.

Retail prices of wheat decreased year‑on‑year

National average retail prices of first grade wheat flour had a declining trend from May to November 2024. From last December onwards, prices remained overall stable and, as of May 2025, they were about 5 percent below the level of one year before, supported by ample domestic wheat stocks. As of June 2025, wheat export prices remained stable month‑on‑month and were down by 20 percent year‑on‑year, continuing a downward trend seen throughout most of 2024, as export demand remains weak.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .