Reference Date: 27-March-2024

Unfavourable production prospects for 2024 winter wheat crop

Harvesting of the 2024 minor wheat crop, which was planted in October 2023 in the main producing southern regions, is expected to take place between June and August 2024. Cumulative precipitation amounts between September 2023 and February 2024 were below average and weather forecasts point to below‑average rainfalls and unfavourable production prospects for the 2024 minor winter wheat crop.

Planting of the main spring wheat crop is expected to start in May 2024 in the key producing northern provinces and crops will be harvested from mid ‑ August.

Below‑average cereal production obtained in 2023

The total 2023 cereal production is estimated below the five‑year average, due to unfavourable weather conditions which had a negative impact on both winter and spring crops.Wheat production in 2023 is estimated at 12.1 million tonnes, below the five‑year average level and about 25 percent below the previous year. In the main wheat growing areas in North Kazakhstan, drought as well as excessive rainfall amounts contributed to diminish yields and grain quality. Barley output in 2023 is estimated at a below‑average level of 3 million tonnes due to unfavourable weather conditions. However, the 2023 total harvest for maize, planted in the irrigated area in South Kazakhstan, is about 1.2 million tonnes, 10 percent above the average due to the beneficial irrigation system.

Wheat exports forecast at near‑average level in 2023/24

Total cereal exports in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at about 10 million tonnes, near the average volume. Wheat exports are forecast at a slightly above‑average level of 9 million tonnes and barley exports are projected at 600 000 tonnes, slightly below the average volume.

In March 2024, the Interdepartmental Commission on Foreign Trade Policy and Participation in International Economic Organizations extended for another six months the ban on the import of wheat adopted in September 2023. The country implemented a six‑month ban on importing wheat via road, rail and water transport from third countries and the Eurasian Economic Union, with some exceptions for licensed elevators, grain processors and poultry producers. This action was taken to safeguard local farmers and maintain stability in the domestic wheat market.

Retail prices of wheat flour at same level year‑on‑year

National average retail prices of first grade wheat flour increased steeply from September to November 2023. From November 2023 to January 2024, prices decreased 3 percent month‑on‑month and remained at the same year‑earlier levels.

Retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, decreased steeply between August 2023 and January 2024, in line with seasonal patterns.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .