Reference Date: 22-November-2024

Above-average precipitation amounts and government subsidies led to exceptional cereal harvest in 2024

The 2024 cereal harvest was completed between June and July and production is estimated at 6.6 million tonnes, about 11 percent above the average, mainly due to favourable weather conditions. Excluding Kurdistan region, the 2024 wheat harvest is estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, about 28 percent above the five-year average, mainly due to abundant cumulative rainfall amounts in the key grain producing regions of Ninewa and Kirkuk provinces, and to the support by the government through the provision of subsidies for irrigation, inputs and mechanization as well as the guarantee of encouraging procurement prices. The government set a procurement price of IQD 850 000/tonne (about USD 650/tonne) of wheat harvested in 2024, which is more than double the international prices. The locally produced wheat for type zero flour will be sold to mills at subsidized price of IQD 450 000/tonne, to ensure supply availability across the country at accessible prices. Overall, timely government payments and input subsidies supported farmers’ livelihoods and increased the wheat planted area.

Land preparation for 2025 winter cereal crops started in October 2024. Distribution of drought-resistant and high-quality wheat seeds at subsidized prices has initiated in some regions, including Al Najaf and Kirkuk governorates. There are concerns for the 2025 crop output as weather forecasts point to dry conditions in late 2024 associated to the likely La Niña event. Although the regular governmental subsidy programme is encouraging production of cereals, the late start of the rainy season is expected to delay plantings and reduce the extent of the planted area.

Cereal import requirements to soften in 2024/25 given above-average domestic production

Wheat import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 1.8 million tonnes, about 23 percent below the average, reflecting the upturn in 2024 domestic production.

With the aim to support domestic wheat production and reduce the country’s reliance on imports, the government introduced customs tariffs on imported flour, starting with a 10 percent import duty as of September 2024 to be gradually increased to 25 percent in mid-2025 and a 30 percent import duty on pre-packaged flour from October 2024. The customs tariff will raise import costs and is likely to decrease inflows of imported wheat flour.

Domestic staple food prices eased in 2024

In 2024, average cereal prices decreased year-on-year given the ample domestic production and low international prices. The tight monetary policy, ensuring foreign reserves and limiting fluctuation of the national currency rate, also eased inflationary pressures. In October 2024, national average retail prices of wheat flour and rice were IQD 1 084/kg and IQD 2 132/kg, respectively, down by 7 and 5 percent compared to the same period in 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .