Reference Date: 10-June-2026

Near‑average cereal harvest forecast in 2026 supported by favourable weather conditions

Harvesting activities of the 2026 winter cereal crops, including wheat and barley, have started in some regions and are expected to continue until next July. Despite delays in planting operations at the beginning of the season due to dry weather conditions between October and November 2025, abundant precipitation amounts between mid‑December 2025 and February 2026 replenished soil moisture levels and improved crop conditions during key vegetative stages, supporting near-average cereal production prospects for 2026. Rainfall was particularly beneficial in the major producing governorates of Gilan, Golestan, Khorasan, Khuzestan and Fars. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on farmers’ access to agricultural inputs, as well as potential supply chain disruptions, remains a concern. In response to rising production costs, including fuel and fertilizers, the government announced, in April 2026, the procurement price for the 2026 wheat harvest at 49 650 tomans/kg, about 140 percent higher year‑on‑year.

Planting operations of the 2026 rice crop in key producing provinces of Gilan and Mazandaran started last May under favourable weather conditions and it is expected to be completed by the end of June 2026.

Total cereal production estimated below average in 2025

Total cereal production in 2025 is estimated at 19.5 million tonnes, more than 10 percent below the five‑year average, mainly due to prolonged dry weather conditions between December 2024 and May 2025, which adversely affected yields in most producing areas. Wheat production is estimated at 12 million tonnes, about 16 percent below average. In key producing Khuzestan Province, cold weather in late February 2025 damaged crops during their critical growth stages, while frequent power outages constrained access to irrigation water, reducing yields and contributing to the below-average harvest. High input prices, particularly for seeds and fertilizers, further limited production. By contrast, rice production, concentrated in the northern governorates, is estimated at 3.9 million tonnes, about 2 percent above average, mainly due to a near-average planted area.

Cereal imports estimated above average in 2025/26 marketing year

Cereal imports in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are estimated at about 22 million tonnes, nearly 30 percent above the average. The increase is mainly driven by higher wheat imports, mostly sourced from the Russian Federation, following the below‑average domestic harvest in 2025, as well as the larger maize imports supported by the strong demand from the livestock and poultry feed sectors.

Wheat import requirements forecast below average in 2026/27 marketing year

Wheat import requirements for the 2026/27 marketing year (April/March) are preliminarily forecast at 3 million tonnes, about 25 percent below the five-year average, reflecting abundant carryover stocks from above-average imports in 2025/26 and favourable prospects for the 2026 domestic production. Maize import requirements are expected at 11 million tonnes, about 9 percent above average, driven by the sustained demand for feed from the livestock and poultry sectors. The subsidized preferential exchange rate has been maintained at IRR 285 000/USD 1 for the 2026/27 financial year (21 March 2026 to 20 March 2027) for wheat imports, with the aim of ensuring adequate domestic supplies and containing inflationary pressures on staple foods. The preferential rate remains substantially below the official market exchange rate, which stood at IRR 1 317 000/USD 1 in April 2026.

Cereal retail prices surged in 2026 driven by sharp exchange rate depreciation

Retail wheat flour prices in Tehran surged in January 2026, reaching record high levels due to the sharp depreciation of the national currency, and remained stable through April. Retail prices of rice have followed an upward trend since July 2025, reaching record highs in April 2026. The elevated price levels were mainly driven by the depreciation of the national currency, with the official market exchange rate falling to a record low of IRR 1 317 000/USD 1 in April 2026. On a year‑on‑year basis, prices of wheat flour and rice were about 170 percent and 220 percent, respectively, higher. Following the gradual removal of the preferential exchange rate that began in 2022, the government maintained social protection measures, including cash transfers and the electronic food voucher (Kalaberg) scheme, to support vulnerable households and improve access to basic food items. Inflationary pressures remained high, exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and rising global fuel and fertilizer prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .