Reference Date: 04-September-2024

Wheat production officially estimated at record level in 2024

Harvesting of the 2024 rabi wheat crop, almost entirely irrigated, was concluded last May, with production officially estimated at a record level of 112.9 million tonnes. The area planted is estimated at an above‑average level. Yields are also estimated at an above‑average level, despite weather setbacks during the cropping season, especially the high temperatures in March and April 2024. Planting of 2024 main kharif paddy and maize crops, almost entirely rainfed, for harvest from September onwards, has been completed. According to official estimates, as of 16 August 2024, 36.9 million hectares were planted with paddy and 8.7 million hectares with maize, both well above the five‑year average for the same period. Overall, the area planted with these crops is forecast at an above‑average level. As of mid‑August 2024, remote sensing data indicates favourable vegetation conditions across most cropping areas (ASI map), supported by average to above‑average precipitation amounts since late June 2024. In some northern and southern provinces heavy rains triggered flash floods and landslides in late July and August 2024, causing localized crop losses and damage to housing and agricultural infrastructure. The 2024 secondary rabi maize crop will be planted from September onwards and the rabi paddy crop from November onwards.

According to the latest weather forecasts, there is a high likelihood of above‑average precipitation amounts between September and November 2024, likely providing conducive conditions for late plantings and adequate development of the 2024 main crops. However, excessive rains increase the risk of flooding, which can cause significant agricultural damage and population displacement. In addition, above‑average temperatures are forecast over the same period, which could foster the development of pest and disease infestations, and reduce yields.

Total cereal exports forecast at below‑average level in 2024/25

On 20 July 2023, the government banned exports of non‑basmati white rice , following earlier bans on exports of broken rice (from 8 September 2022) and wheat (from 13 May 2022). In August 2023, a 20 percent export duty on parboiled rice was also introduced and basmati rice exports were permitted on the condition that they were priced above a stipulated floor. However, exemptions to these export restrictions have been approved on food security grounds.

Rice exports in calendar 2024 are forecast at 15.4 million tonnes. Wheat exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 500 000 tonnes, well below the five‑year average. Similarly, maize exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a well below‑average level of 800 000 tonnes.

Prices of rice and wheat grain higher year‑on‑year in July 2024

National average retail prices of rice have generally increased between June 2022 and June 2024, and in July 2024, they were about 10 percent higher than the elevated levels a year earlier. Retail prices of wheat grain have increased steadily from June 2023 and reached record levels in February 2024. Between March and May 2024, prices eased slightly with the arrival of the 2024 harvest into the markets. On 24 June 2024, the government imposed limits on wheat stocks allowed to be held by retailers, wholesalers, trades and processors effective until 31 March 2025, aiming to prevent hoarding and improve market availability. As of August 2024, wheat stocks in public warehouses, needed to run various welfare schemes, was estimated at 26.8 million tonnes.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .