Reference Date: 13-February-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 wheat crop

Harvesting of the 2026 Rabi wheat crop, which is almost entirely irrigated, is expected to start in late March and production prospects are generally favourable. The area planted is estimated at a record level of 33.4 million hectares, underpinned by continued government incentives, including remunerative minimum support prices and subsidies for agricultural inputs. Adequate irrigation water supply and generally conducive weather conditions favoured satisfactory crop development and supported yields in most parts of the country.

Cereal crop production in 2025 forecast at record level

Harvesting of the 2025/26 secondary Rabi paddy crop, which accounts for about 12 percent of the annual output, is expected to start in March 2026. Production is preliminarily forecast to be above the five-year average, mainly reflecting large sowings, enabled by adequate water supplies for irrigation and supported by governmental policies. Weather conditions were generally favourable from November 2025 to January 2026, which had a positive effect on crop development. The 2025/26 main Kharif paddy crop, which accounts for about 80 percent of the annual output, was harvested by January 2026, and production is estimated at a record level of 187.5 million tonnes. The robust output reflects record plantings and excellent yields, underpinned by average to above-average monsoon precipitation amounts between June and September 2025. Localized crop losses occurred in several parts of the country due to floods and landslides triggered by heavy rains and cloudbursts (short duration and intense rainfall events over a small area) in August and September 2025. Together with a forecast favourable result to the 2025/26 summer crop harvest, aggregate paddy production in 2025/26 is forecast at a record level of 230.6 million tonnes.

Harvesting of the 2025 secondary Rabi maize crop is underway and is expected to conclude by May, while the main Kharif maize crop was harvested last November. Aggregate maize production is forecast at 43 million tonnes, about 17 percent above the five-year average, owing to large sowings due to strong demand by the local feed industry.

Wheat production in 2025, harvested last June, is officially estimated at a record level of 117.9 million tonnes, reflecting both high area planted and yields.

Total cereal exports forecast at average level in 2025/26 marketing year

Aggregate cereal exports, mainly rice and small quantities of maize and wheat, are forecast at an average level of 25 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year. Exports of rice in 2026 calendar year are forecast at 23.6 million tonnes, up 9 percent from the 2025 and an all-time high. Exports of maize in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 750 000 million tonnes, about 65 percent below the average, due to limited exportable surpluses caused by strong domestic demand by the feed industry. Exports of wheat in the 2025/26 marketing year are forecast at 250 000 tonnes, significantly below the average level for the third consecutive year, due to the ongoing ban on exports of wheat, imposed in May 2022, aiming to mitigate increases of domestic prices.

Prices of wheat grain slightly below year‑earlier high levels in December 2025

Domestic prices of wheat grain declined between March and June 2025, reflecting increased market availability following the commercialization of the 2025 harvest. Subsequently, from July to October 2025, prices increased steadily, mainly supported by the strong domestic demand during the major national festivals. Prices stabilized in November and December 2025, when they were slightly below their high level a year earlier. Since May 2025, the government imposed limits on wheat grain stocks held by retailers, wholesalers, traders and processors, effective until 31 March 2026, with the aim of preventing hoarding and improving market availability. Domestic prices of rice declined between June 2024 and June 2025, owing to ample market supplies from the 2024/25 record harvest. Between July and October 2025, prices of rice increased, amid strong demand, but they were, as of December 2025, close to their levels of a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .