Reference Date: 08-July-2024

First paddy output of 2024 estimated at below‑average level due to dry weather conditions

Harvesting of the 2024 first paddy crop, accounting for about 40 percent of the annual output, finalized in May 2024 with some delay, up to eight weeks in some areas. The October to April rainy season began at the end of November 2023 and rains remained erratic until late December due to the influence of the El Niño event. Precipitation amounts improved from January 2024 onwards across most of the country, allowing plantings and benefiting yields of late‑planted crops. However, pocket areas with below‑average rainfall amounts persisted until mid‑May in key rice‑producing areas of Sumatra and Java islands. Overall, first paddy production is estimated at a below‑average level, mostly reflecting area contractions due to dry weather conditions. Planting of the 2024 second paddy crop, mostly irrigated and accounting for about 30 percent of the annual output, started in early May, following the conclusion of the delayed main crop harvest. To mitigate the negative effects of dryness on the first crop harvest of the season, the government has taken steps to provide supplementary irrigation, including through the installation of water pumps, and increased the amount of subsidized fertilizers and the number of farmers receiving them compared with 2023. Remote sensing data from mid‑June 2024 indicates good vegetation conditions in most of the country, inferring generally favourable yield prospects (ASI map). Planting of the 2024 third paddy crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, is expected to start in August.

Harvesting of the 2024 rainy season maize crop, accounting for about 55 percent of the annual output, was also delayed by about two months due to a late start of the season and finalized in May. Production is estimated at below‑average levels due to dry weather conditions in the first part of the cropping season. The 2024 dry season maize crop, accounting for about 45 percent of the annual output, is currently at flowering and grain‑filling stages, and crop conditions are generally favourable.

Weather forecasts indicate above‑average rainfall amounts between July and September 2024 over large parts of the country, improving the availability of irrigation water and providing conducive conditions for development of late‑planted crops. However, excessive rains during the crop maturation or harvesting stages could diminish yields and constrain field work activities, with negative consequences on the final output. In addition, hotter‑than‑average temperatures are forecast in some areas, increasing the risks for pest and disease outbreaks.

Below‑average paddy production harvested in 2023

Aggregate 2023 cereal production, mostly rice and maize, is estimated at a slightly below‑average level of 68.4 million tonnes. The 2023 paddy production is estimated at a below‑average level of 54 million tonnes. Production of the 2023 maize crop is estimated at an average level of 14.5 million tonnes.

Near‑record cereal import requirements forecast in 2024/25

Total cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at 15.7 million tonnes, close to the previous year’s record level. Imports of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at a high level of 11.5 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat‑based food products. Imports of rice in the 2024 calendar year are forecast at 2.9 million tonnes, mainly reflecting expectations of substantial imports of rice by the government to replenish public stocks and to dampen increases in domestic prices. Imports of maize are forecast at a well above‑average level of 1.2 million tonnes due to strong demand by the poultry industry.

Prices of rice higher year‑on‑year in May 2024

Domestic prices of rice, the country’s main staple, gradually increased from July 2023 to March 2024, reflecting the reduced output of the 2023 crop and concerns about the effect of dry weather conditions on the 2024 crop. Increases in costs of production and transport contributed to the price increases. Despite a seasonal decline in April and May, prices remained about 15 percent higher than the elevated level a year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .