Reference Date: 29-January-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 main paddy and maize crops

Harvesting of the 2026 First paddy crop, accounting for about 55 percent of the total annual production, is expected to start in February. The area planted is estimated to be above the five‑year average, supported by favourable price prospects and official incentives, including subsidized fertilizers. In the main rice producing areas, including Java Island, which accounts for about 50 percent of the national rice output, cumulative precipitation amounts between October 2025 and early January 2026 were average to above average, supporting favourable production prospects. However, in parts of Sumatra Island, where about 15 percent of the national rice production is concentrated, below‑average precipitation amounts in November and early December 2025 negatively affected planting operations and crop development. In addition, localized crop losses were caused by floods and landslides in the provinces of Aceh as well as North and West Sumatra following heavy rainfall in late December 2025 and early January 2026. Floods also destroyed food stocks, disrupted livelihoods and damaged critical infrastructures, including roads, bridges and schools. Planting of the 2026 Second paddy crops, accounting for about 25 percent of the total annual production, is expected to start from April 2026. Harvesting of the 2026 main rainy season maize crop is expected to start in February and production prospects are favourable. The area planted is estimated to be close to the 2025 above‑average level, driven by strong demand of the domestic feed sector, while favourable weather conditions have benefited yields. Some localized crop losses occurred in parts of Sumatra Island due to unfavourable weather conditions. The 2026 dry season maize crop, for harvest from July, will be planted from April 2026 onwards.

Above‑average paddy production harvested in 2025

The 2025 paddy cropping season finalized in December 2025 with the harvest of the third crop and the aggregate 2025 paddy production is officially estimated at 59 million tonnes, about 9 percent above the average level, reflecting a price‑driven expansion in the area planted and positive yield results supported by generally favourable weather conditions. Production of the 2025 maize crop, harvested in September 2025, is officially estimated at 15.3 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average, mostly owing to large sowings driven by strong demand of the domestic poultry industry.

Near‑record wheat import requirements forecast in 2025/26

In the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March), import requirements of wheat, accounting for the bulk of the country’s cereal imports, are forecast at a near‑record level of 11.5 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increasing domestic consumption of wheat ‑ based food products. Imports of maize are forecast at a well above‑average level of 1.5 million tonnes, reflecting strong demand by the domestic poultry industry.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .