Reference Date: 25-August-2026

Paddy production forecast at record‑high level in 2026

The 2026 second paddy crop, which accounts for slightly less than half of the annual production, is currently at vegetative and flowering stages. The output is anticipated above average, mainly due to large plantings. Amid high production costs from rising fuel and fertilizer prices, the government supported planting intentions with the implementation of a cash grant programme for rice farmers . The programme also offset the discouraging impact of localized floods in key‑producing coastal areas in May, coinciding with the start of sowing operations, and the area planted is estimated to remain above average for the second consecutive year. Between mid‑July and August, hotter‑than‑average temperatures and dry weather conditions, associated with the onset of El Niño phenomenon, strained crop conditions, curbing crop yields.

Overall, paddy production in 2026, including the main crop that was harvested in May, is anticipated at record‑high level. This is in line with the upward trend of the last four years, supported by an export‑led expansion in the area planted, compounded by yield‑boosting investments in agricultural technology.

Rice exports expected to increase for the fifth consecutive year in 2026

Rice is the country’s most important exportable agricultural commodity and, on average, about half of the annual production is exported. In the 2026/27 marketing year (January/December), exports are forecast to increase for the fifth consecutive year at the above‑average level of 420 000 tonnes, reflecting a growing exportable surplus from large production prospects in 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .