Reference Date: 20-August-2025

Erratic precipitations and above‑average temperatures hampered 2025 maize plantings

Harvesting of the 2025 maize main Primera crop is expected to start in September, with a one‑month delay in some of the main central and northern producing areas. Erratic precipitations and above‑average temperatures at planting and early development stages between March and May 2025 hampered crop emergence, requiring some replanting. Moderate rainfall amounts in the second half of June replenished soil moisture levels and, despite irregular precipitations in July in central‑western regions, satellite images point to average to above‑average crop conditions (VCI map) and output is anticipated at a near-average level. The sown area is estimated at a near-average level, declining from the 2024 large acreage due to lower year‑on‑year prices at planting time.

Plantings of the 2025 minor Postrera maize crops, accounting for about 40 percent of the annual production, are expected to start at the end of August, with a one-month delay due to erratic precipitations and high temperatures in the main cropping regions. Weather forecasts point to average precipitations in the September-November trimester, improving soil moisture conditions and yield potential. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season (June‑November) is forecast to be above normal, with an above-average number of expected storms and hurricanes forecast in the season, requiring close monitoring.

Cereal import volumes in 2024/25 estimated 18 percent above average

Cereal imports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at 2.9 million tonnes, about 18 percent above the previous five‑year average. Cereal imports have been increasing over the last decade, mostly due to the rising demand for yellow maize from the feed sector and for wheat for domestic consumption. Cereal import requirements are expected to increase also in the 2025/26 marketing year due to sustained demand.

Prices of white maize and black beans declined year‑on‑year due to increased import volumes

Wholesale prices of black beans in Guatemala City were nearly stable during the first half of 2025 and, as of July, they were almost 20 percent below their level of one year before, reflecting abundant market supply from large import amounts. After declining for two consecutive months in April and May, white maize prices in Guatemala City increased seasonally in June and July 2025, amid ongoing plantings of the main Primera season. In July 2025, wholesale maize prices were about 10 percent lower than one year earlier, on account of large market availability from abundant carryover stocks, compounded by the 25 percent year‑on‑year import rise in 2024. Prices of rice remained unchanged from March to July 2025, with ample supply due to the 60 percent yearly increase in imports between October 2024 and March 2025, which more than offset the low domestic output in 2024. Wholesale rice prices were about 10 percent higher year‑on‑year in July 2025.

About 2.8 million people estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity between March and May 2025

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 2.7 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between September 2024 and February 2025, down from 3.1 million between September 2023 and February 2024. The improvement was mainly driven by the year‑on‑year reduction in food inflation. In July 2025, in line with larger year‑on‑year import amounts of staple food and lower international prices, the food inflation rate reached 0 percent, down from 8.1 percent the previous year. The decline in food inflation partially eased the negative impact of the prolonged lean season caused by the delayed start of the Primera harvest on food access of most vulnerable households.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .