Reference Date: 29-April-2024

Favourable weather conditions expected at planting time of 2024 main maize crop

Planting operations of the main season maize crop typically starts in May in most cropping areas, while these are already ongoing in minor producing areas of western highlands. Rainfall amounts in April and May 2024 are forecast at average level, likely replenishing localized current soil moisture deficits due to below‑average precipitation amounts between January and mid‑March, especially in northern areas. Weather forecasts point to above‑average precipitation amounts in the June to August period, typically associated with the La Niña phenomenon, which coincides with crop grain‑filling and maturation stages, and the start of the harvest. If excessive rains materialize, they could diminish yields and constrain harvesting operations. In addition, hotter‑than‑average temperatures are forecast throughout the main cropping season, likely causing pest infestations. The 2024 hurricane season (from June to November) is preliminarily forecast to be above average, and thus a close monitoring is required.

The area sown is likely to be above the average due to the expected favourable weather conditions at planting time. However, compared to the previous year’s large sowings, a slight reduction in planted area is forecast in 2024 due to lower year‑on‑year prices.

Maize 2023 output estimated at above‑average level

According to official sources, 2023 maize production is estimated at about 2.1 million tonnes, 5 percent above the five‑year average, although crops in some localized areas have been negatively affected dry weather conditions during the primera season as well as excessive rainfall amounts during the postrera season.

Cereal import requirements expected at high levels in 2023/24 marketing year

Cereal import requirements in the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are expected at an above‑average level of 2.5 million tonnes. Cereal imports have been increasing steadily over the last decade due to strong demand for yellow maize by the feed industry, combined with the sustained demand of wheat‑based food products in line with an increasing population.

Prices of black beans 15 percent higher year‑on‑year in March

Wholesale prices of black beans rose moderately in March 2024 following seasonal declines in the past four months. Prices were 15 percent above their year‑earlier levels in March 2024, after sustained increases during the first ten months of 2023. Prices of white maize remained stable during the first three months of 2024, following seasonal declines at end‑2023, and were about 15 percent lower year‑on‑year on account of ample supplies from the above‑average harvest in 2023. Prices of rice have been generally weakening since December 2022, reflecting declines in export prices in the United States of America, the country’s main rice supplier. As of March 2024, rice prices were 4 percent lower compared to a year ago.

Number of people facing high levels of acute food insecurity marginally lower year‑on‑year

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 3.1 million people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (classified under IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between September 2023 and February 2024, slightly down from the 3.2 million people in the similar period a year before. The year‑on‑year improvement is mainly due to the stabilization of the food inflation, which decreased from 15.4 percent in February 2023 to 4.9 percent in February 2024. According to the Humanitarian Needs Overview of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the number of people in need in food security and nutrition sectors is estimated at 4.3 million in 2024, slightly lower than the 4.6 million in 2023.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .