Reference Date: 26-January-2026

Maize output in 2025 preliminarily anticipated at near‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2025 minor season segunda maize crop have been recently completed. In eastern and southern areas (Valles de Oriente, Bocacosta, Litoral Pacífico), where the segunda maize crop is cultivated, soil moisture was adequate at planting time and vegetative conditions were generally average throughout the season, benefitting crop yields. The area sown is estimated to be slightly below average, driven by lower year‑on‑year prices at planting times in August and September 2025. As a result, the seasonal production is preliminarily expected to be near‑average level.

In northern and northeastern areas, the minor segunda tardía maize crop, to be harvested in March 2026, is at vegetative and flowering stages. Weather forecasts indicate a high likelihood of average precipitation amounts in February and March 2026, raising yield prospects.

Although official estimates are not yet available, maize production in 2025 is preliminarily anticipated to be near the five‑year average, despite localized losses due to erratic precipitation distribution. In key producing departments of Petén, Alta Verapaz and Izabal, the main season output was estimated at average levels due to generally conducive weather conditions.

Cereal import requirements expected about 25 percent above average in 2025/26

Cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are expected at 3.2 million tonnes, about 25 percent above the previous five‑year average. The expected high level of imports is primarily driven by strong demand for yellow maize by the feeding sector as well as by rising demand for wheat for human consumption.

Prices of white maize and black beans declined seasonally during last quarter of 2025

From October to December 2025, prices of white maize declined by more than 10 percent due to ample market availability from the main season Primera harvest as well as higher year‑on‑year imports during this period. However, prices in December 2025 were 6 percent higher than a year before, as a result of the lower year‑on‑year outturn in 2025. After remaining stable during the first semester of 2025, wholesale prices of black beans slightly declined from July to December 2025, in line with improved seasonal availability from the minor season harvest, as well as declining international quotations. Prices of black beans in December 2025 were about 20 percent lower year‑on‑year due to large market supply from above‑average imports in both 2024 and 2025. Rice prices were mostly stable from March to December 2025, but moderately above their levels of the previous year, reflecting lower year‑on‑year imports.

About 2.6 million people facing high levels of acute food insecurity between September 2025 and January 2026

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis , about 2.6 million people, corresponding to 14 percent of the analysed population, are projected to face acute food insecurity between September 2025 and January 2026, nearly unchanged from the same period of one year earlier (September 2024 to February 2025). Unfavourable weather conditions affected agricultural activities and limited food availability for smallholder farmers in Alta Verapaz, the Dry Corridor and the highlands. High prices of agricultural inputs, such as fuel and fertilizers, and limited access to irrigation water also contributed to hamper food production for subsistence farmers.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .