Reference Date: 18-October-2024

Cereal production in 2024 forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2024 coarse grain crops (millet, sorghum and maize) started in September and are expected to conclude in October. In most producing areas, cumulative rainfall amounts between May and August were generally adequate to satisfy cereal crop water requirements. However, localized production shortfalls are expected in some parts of the region of Gabú, where recurrent dry spells between June and August affected crop establishment and development.

Harvesting of the 2024 rice crop, the main cereal produced in the country, just started in October and is expected to be completed by January 2025. Average to above‑average cumulative rainfall amounts between June and September supported crop establishment and development in key rice-producing regions, including Oio, Cacheu and Biombo, which account for about 80 percent of the domestic rice output. However, rainfall deficits in August affected the establishment and development of early planted crops in some areas, in particular in northern parts of the region of Oio. According to remote sensing data, vegetation conditions improved in most of these areas by end‑September, due to abundant rainfall amounts which boosted production prospects.

The 2024 aggregate cereal production is forecast at 314 000 tonnes, about 13 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Prices of key food staples near or below year‑earlier levels

Retail prices of imported rice, the most consumed cereal in the country, sharply increased between March and April 2024, rising by up to 40 percent. In the following months, prices declined or levelled off and, in August, were around their year‑earlier values.

Prices of imported wheat flour, another key food staple, followed mixed trends since early 2024 and, as of August 2024, prices were generally below their year-earlier levels.

About 117 000 people acutely food insecure during 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 117 000 people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period. This shows a substantial increase in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to the same period in 2023, when nearly 79 000 people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. However, this deterioration can be mainly attributed to variations in the coverage of the analyses carried out in 2023 and 2024, with the analysed population increasing by about 40 percent in the 2024 projection.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in December.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .