Reference Date: 02-September-2024

Mixed performance of 2024 seasonal rains, prolonged dry spells in northern areas

Harvesting of the 2024 main season cereal crops started in August and is expected to conclude by December in northern regions. Production prospects are mixed due to variable weather conditions across the country. Areas in the north are most concerning, where prolonged dry spells are likely to cause production declines compared to last year’s above‑average level. However, more conducive weather conditions in key‑producing southern areas are likely to avert a major reduction in the 2024 aggregate national cereal output.

In northern areas, planting of the 2024 cereal crops was completed in July, and harvesting is expected to conclude in the last quarter of the year. Despite near‑average cumulative rainfall amounts between May and early August, an erratic temporal distribution and a prolonged dry spell between July and August have resulted in stressed vegetation conditions. There are particular concerns for the Northern and Upper West regions, which are both important areas for maize and rice production, the country’s key cereal staples, where cumulative rainfall amounts were below the long‑term average. In addition to the uneven rainfall distribution, temperatures have been consistently above average, intensifying the negative impact of poor rains. Preliminary ground analysis indicates poor seed germination, with some planted areas characterized by crop wilting and stunting.

In the centre and south of the country, which account for the bulk of the country’s maize output, harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crop is ongoing and will conclude in September. In most areas, cumulative rainfall amounts between March and June were generally adequate to satisfy cereal crop water requirements. However, lower‑than‑average rainfall in July affected crops in Ashanti, Bono East and Central regions, which are key maize‑producing areas. High temperatures in these regions have also exacerbated the negative effects of the reduced rains on crops, and remote sensing data indicate a deterioration of vegetation conditions in early August, and likely reduced yields. Elsewhere in the south and centre of the country, vegetation conditions appear satisfactory.

Weather forecasts for September and October 2024 indicate a high probability of average to above‑average rainfall amounts across most of the country, which could support a partial recovery of crop conditions in northern areas.

Above‑average cereal production in 2023

The 2023 aggregate cereal production is estimated at 5.8 million tonnes, about 28 percent above the five‑year average, mostly reflecting conducive weather conditions in key‑producing areas and the positive impact on yields of governmental support to farmers in terms of provision of subsidized fertilizers and improved seeds.

Annual inflation rate decreasing, but remains at high levels

According to Ghana Statistical Services, the annual inflation rate slowed for a fourth consecutive month to 20.9 percent in July 2024, down from 43.1 percent a year earlier, reflecting a decline in both food and non‑food inflation. Tight monetary policy has contributed to the disinflation since the end of December 2022, when it reached 54.1 percent year‑on‑year, the highest level in 22 years, while lower international commodity prices have also helped to lessen inflationary pressure.

About 1.05 million people acutely food insecure between June and August 2024

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, over 1.05 million people (3 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period, including about 19 000 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is below the 1.37 million people (4 percent of the analyzed population) estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance during the same period in 2023. The improvement reflects mainly the above‑average cereal output in 2023 as well as the significant decline in food and non‑food inflation.

Household assessments are underway to determine the extent of the impact of the recent dry weather conditions in northern areas, where significant production shortfalls are likely to affect local food security conditions.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/.

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/.

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/.

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Agmet EO Indicators by NASA Harvest and GEOGLAM Crop Monitor https://cropmonitortools.org/tools/agmet/ .