Reference Date: 07-February-2024

Near‑average cereal production estimated in 2023

Planting of 2024 winter cereals was completed in December 2023 and their harvest will start at the end of April 2024. Cereals are grown on irrigated fields, resulting in relatively stable yields year‑on‑year. Above‑average temperatures at the beginning of 2024, coupled with above‑average rainfall amounts, favoured crop growth.

Aggregate 2023 cereal production is estimated at 24 million tonnes, about 4 percent above the five‑year average. Wheat represents about 40 percent of total cereal production. Wheat production in 2023 is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes, about 7 percent higher compared to the five‑year average. To support wheat production and increase purchases of grains by the Ministry of Supply and Internal Trade, almost two weeks before the start of the planting season of the 2024 wheat crop, the government announced the decision to increase the procurement price from EGP 885/ardeb (150 kg) in the previous marketing year to EGP 1 600/ardeb (150 kg).

By November 2023, maize harvesting was finalized. Maize production in 2023 was estimated at a near‑average level of 7.1 million tonnes, mainly due to adequate availability of irrigation water from the Nile during the whole growing season.

Cereal import requirement forecast below average in 2023/24

In the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecasted at 20 million tonnes, almost 8 percent below the five‑year average level.

As of January 2024, the government announced that the national strategic reserves of wheat were sufficient to cover national consumption needs for 4.8 months. Wheat imports for the current 2023/24 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at 11.5 million tonnes, about 4 percent below the previous year.

The war in Ukraine lead to an increase in wheat prices at international level since early 2022 affecting particularly the trade of wheat in the country, the world’s largest importer. The share of wheat imports from Ukraine decreased from 30 to 13 percent in the 2022/23 marketing year, while imports from the Russia Federation increased from 46 to 80 percent.

The country started to diversify its import partners to secure a stable wheat supply and shifting towards direct wheat purchases to negotiate prices in addition to international tenders. The government gave to the General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) the right to contract directly with any government or company. The government withdrew from the Grains Trade Convention in June 2023 reporting to limited action from the organization to address the increasing of wheat prices during the war in Ukraine.

Food price inflation lingers at high level

Food inflation has steadily increased since January 2023. In September 2023, the annual food price inflation was estimated at 74 percent compared to 48 percent registered in January 2023. As a consequence, the share of staple foods such a bread and rice consumed by households is expected to raise.

The Central Bank devalued the currency in January 2023 to EGP 24.74/USD 1. At the end of January 2024, USD 1 was selling for about EGP 30.90.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .