Reference Date: 10-July-2026

Production of the 2026 main paddy crop anticipated to be slightly below average

Harvesting of the 2026 main season paddy crop is ongoing. The seasonal production is expected to be slightly below average reflecting reduced plantings caused by excessive rainfall amounts during the first four months of 2026.

Weather forecasts point to high likelihood of below-average precipitation amounts from July until the end of the year, reducing the availability of irrigation water and affecting planting of the minor paddy crops which is expected to start soon.

Domestic maize production accounts only for about 5 percent of the total domestic utilization and the crop is cultivated throughout the year. Area planted during the first quarter of 2026 is officially estimated at above-average levels as a response to the growing demand of yellow maize by the feed sector.

Above-average import requirements expected in 2026/27 marketing year

About 60 percent of the country’s cereal consumption needs are covered by imports. In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), cereal imports are estimated at above-average 2.5 million tonnes, driven by steady demand of wheat for human consumption and maize for animal feed, particularly in the poultry sector, but are slightly lower year‑on‑year due to ample carryover stocks from large imports in 2024/25. Cereal import requirements in the 2026/27 are forecast to remain at above average, supported by the strong domestic demand.

Rice prices slightly up the year-earlier levels, while prices of black beans moderately lower year‑on‑year in May

After remaining broadly stable in recent months, retail prices of rice declined seasonally in May 2026, when were near their year-earlier levels, reflecting adequate market supply.

Following seasonal trends, retail prices of black beans declined in May 2026 after increasing during the first four months of the year. In May, prices were about 5 percent below their year‑earlier levels, mainly due to above-average harvests in 2025.

After being stable during the first four months of 2026, retail prices of yellow maize increased in May in line with rising international market prices. Compared to the previous year, prices were 20 percent higher, driven by the strong demand from the expanding poultry sector and high international prices.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .