Reference Date: 07-August-2023

Serious food insecurity situation due to unprecedented multi-season drought

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), about 285 000 people are estimated to face severe acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] and IPC Phase 4 [Emergency]) in the July‑December 2023 period. This figure, which includes about 185 000 people in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 100 000 in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), amounts to about one‑quarter of the country’s population and it is almost 50 percent higher on a yearly basis.

The high prevalence and severity of acute food insecurity and the deterioration of the food security situation are mainly due to the lingering impact of a prolonged and severe drought, which affected livelihoods between late 2020 and early 2023, and resulted in a reduction of livestock numbers by about 50 percent due to widespread deaths, severely constraining incomes and availability of livestock products for pastoralist households.

The country hosts about 31 500 refugees and asylum seekers from Somalia, Ethiopia, Yemen and Eritrea. Most of them lack adequate access to livelihood opportunities and rely entirely on humanitarian assistance.

Poor start of July‑September rainy season and unfavourable weather forecasts raising concerns for drought recovery

In inland pastoral areas of Dikhil, Obock and Tadjourah regions, the 2023 March‑May “diraac/sougum” rains were characterized by abundant rainfall amounts, up to 90 percent above average and by a late cessation in mid‑June. The good performance of the rainy season benefited rangeland resources and livestock body conditions, marking the end of the prolonged drought.

Subsequently, the start of the July‑September “karan/karma” rainy season was very poor, with well below‑average rainfall amounts received over most inland pastoral areas in July (Precipitation anomaly map). The moisture deficits had a negative impact on vegetation conditions, which are currently poor over most areas (Vegetation health index map).

According to the latest weather forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF), the remainder of the “karan/karma” rainy season is expected to be characterized by below‑average rainfall amounts, with a likely, further negative impact on rangeland resources, potentially compromising herds’ recovery from the drought.

Prices of wheat flour volatile and at high levels

Wheat flour is the most consumed cereal in the country, mainly in urban areas and, in 2021, more than half of the country’s requirements were sourced from Ukraine. Since the start of the conflict in Ukraine in early 2022, prices have increased due to supply bottlenecks caused by the war and exhibited a marked volatility. In May 2023, the national average price of wheat flour was 5 percent below the high levels of one year earlier, but it was 15 percent higher than two years earlier. By contrast, the national average price of rice, the second most important cereal in the country’s diet and mainly sourced from India, in May 2023 was at the same levels of one year earlier.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .