Reference Date: 29-October-2024

Planting of 2025 winter wheat crop ongoing

Planting of the 2025 main winter wheat crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the annual output, is ongoing under generally favourable weather conditions and crops will be harvested from May 2025. Area planted is forecast above the five-year average, mostly underpinned by incentive measures put in place by the government, which includes a minimum support price for the wheat crop and subsidies to purchase agricultural inputs. The 2025 minor spring wheat crop will be planted from March next year.

China’s new food security law came into effect in June 2024 and aims to ensure the supply of grain and related products by protecting farmland, limiting land conversion and supporting farmers’ incomes. This law also highlights the need to reduce food waste and enhance grain production capabilities to address the country’s growing grain demand.

Above-average cereal output forecast in 2024

The 2024 paddy cropping season will finalize at the end of November with the harvest of the late double paddy crop, which accounts for 15 percent of the total output. The 2024 early double and single paddy crops, accounting for 15 percent and 65 percent, respectively, of total production, were harvested earlier in the year. Aggregate 2024 paddy production is forecast at 207.4 million tonnes, marginally higher than the previous year, reflecting small increases in both planted area and yields. However, some localized crop losses occurred in southern main paddy producing areas, due to flooding from heavy rains between July and September 2024, and the passage of Typhoon Yagi in late September.

Harvesting of the 2024 main summer maize crop has recently concluded, while the secondary spring crop was harvested in August 2024. Aggregate 2024 maize production is estimated at 292 million tonnes, 7 percent above the five‑year average, mainly due to large sowings driven by strong demand from the feed industry. In the North China Plain, where about 80 percent of the maize crop is grown, above‑average yields were obtained due to generally favourable weather conditions. Some localized crop losses occurred in southern areas due to flooding.

Production of the 2024 wheat crop, harvested in August, is estimated to be slightly above average at 140.1 million tonnes, as an above-average winter season output fully offset the losses of spring season crops caused by excessive rainfall amounts during harvest.

Average cereal imports forecast in 2024/25

Total cereal imports in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected at an average level of 52.6 million tonnes, as the increasing demand will be covered by ample carryover stocks following high imports in 2023/24 and the above-average production harvested in 2024. Imports of maize are forecast at an average level of 20 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (October/September). Imports of wheat are forecast at an average level of 10 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June). By contrast, imports of barley in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are expected to exceed the average, reaching 12.9 million tonnes, as low international prices will encourage purchases from abroad.

Domestic prices of wheat grain decreased since late 2023, while prices of rice remained stable

Wholesale prices of wheat grain have been declining since late 2023 and as of September 2024 were about 10 percent lower year-on-year, mainly due to ample market supply from the bumper harvest attained in 2024.

Wholesale prices of Indica and Japonica rice, the most consumed varieties, have remained generally stable since early 2024 and as of September 2024, were close to their levels from a year earlier, reflecting adequate market availability.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .