Reference Date: 29-January-2026

Area planted with 2026 winter wheat crop estimated at average level

Planting of the 2026 Main winter wheat crop, accounting for about 90 percent of the total annual output, finalized in November 2025, with a three‑week delay due to excessive soil moisture following heavy rainfall in October in the main wheat producing northern areas. From 20 October 2025, the government implemented a 60‑day campaign to facilitate wheat plantings under wet conditions, improve field drainage and support late sowing. In November 2025, below‑average precipitation amounts contributed to soils drying, allowing planting operations to proceed, and the area planted is estimated to be close to the five‑year average. According to field assessment reports, as of early January 2026, soil moisture levels and wheat crop conditions were near average, with crops at dormancy stages in northern parts of the country and at tillering stages in central and southern areas. The 2026 minor spring wheat crop, accounting for about 10 percent of the total annual production, will be planted from March 2026 onwards.

Cereal crop production estimated at record level in 2025

The 2025 cropping season finalized in November 2025 and aggregate cereal production is estimated at a record level of 657.5 million tonnes. Maize output is estimated at a record level of 299 million tonnes, reflecting excellent yields supported by widespread use of high-yielding seed varieties and generally favourable weather conditions in North China Plain, where about 80 percent of the national maize crop is produced. The area planted is estimated to be slightly above average, driven by strong demand of the feed industry. Unseasonal heavy rains at harvest period in October 2025 resulted in localized crop losses and affected grain quality in some northern areas of the country. Paddy production is estimated at 209 million tonnes, close to the five‑year average and 0.7 percent above the 2024/25 results thanks to continued yield improvements. Wheat production is estimated at an above‑average level of 139.9 million tonnes, mostly driven by bumper yields supported by generally favourable weather conditions and widespread use of high‑yielding seed varieties.

Cereal import requirements forecast significantly below‑average in 2025/26

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year are forecast at 37.7 million tonnes, significantly below average, mostly reflecting a record domestic production in 2025. Imports of wheat are estimated at 8 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), about 25 percent below average. Imports of maize are forecast at 8 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (October/September), representing about half of the average level. Imports of sorghum are forecast at 6.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (October/September), about 15 percent below average. By contrast, imports of barley in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are estimated at an above‑average level of 12 million tonnes, likely encouraged by low international prices. Imports of rice in calendar 2026 are forecast at 3.1 million tonnes.

Domestic prices of wheat grain and rice lower year‑on‑year in December 2025

Wholesale prices of Indica rice, the most consumed variety in the country, declined steadily between April 2024 and October 2025, reflecting ample market availability from the record production harvested in 2024 and 2025. In December 2025, prices increased marginally month‑on‑month, but they were about 5 percent lower year‑on‑year. Wholesale prices of wheat grain had an upward trend since January 2025, supported by strong domestic demand for wheat-based products, and, as of December 2025, they were slightly above their year‑earlier level.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .