Reference Date: 19-March-2024

Agricultural production constrained by conflicts and displacements in 2024

In northern areas of the country, harvesting of 2023 millet and sorghum crops finalized last November with a near‑average production. In central and southern areas, planting of the 2024 maize crop is expected to start in mid‑March and weather forecasts between April and June 2024 point to below‑average rainfall amounts, which may negatively affect maize yields.

Persisting conflicts and displacements are expected to continue in 2024 affecting agricultural activities and limiting farmers’ access to crop growing areas and inputs, with a likely negative impact on 2024 production.

Prices of imported food commodities declined in 2023

During the second half of 2023, prices of most locally‑produced staple foods, including maize and cassava, remained overall stable at levels near to those of the year before. By contrast, prices of imported food commodities, such as rice, declined due to the increased supply resulting from enhanced flows through rivers corridors from the Democtatic Republic of Congo and the Republic of the Congo.

About 2 million people acutely food insecure

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, published in November 2023, about 2 million people (33 percent of the analyzed population) are expected to experience high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between September 2023 and March 2024, including 351 000 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

In addition, about 2.5 million people (41 percent of the analyzed population) are forecast to experience IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above between April and August 2024 (lean season), including 521 000 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). In most prefectures, civil insecurity in 2024 continues to cause population displacements and widespread disruption of agricultural and marketing activities with negative consequences on food availability and access.

According to the latest IPC Acute Malnutrition analysis, published in November 2023, about 177 000 children under the age of five are estimated to be Moderately Acutely Malnourished (MAM) between September 2023 and August 2024. Nearly 45 000 are Severely Acutely Malnourished (SAM). In addition, about 162 000 pregnant or lactating women are estimated to suffer from acute malnutrition. This is mainly due to the high prevalence of acute food insecurity, inadequate quality of food intake, infectious diseases, such as malaria and diarrhoea, frequent outbreaks of measles, inaccessibility to adequate sanitation facilities and very limited access to safe drinking water.

Given the high levels of civil insecurity and the limited access to nutritious foods, coupled with high prevalence of infectious diseases, acute malnutrition is expected to deteriorate particularly in conflict ‑ affected areas.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .