Reference Date: 13-February-2026

Conflicts and displacements continue to constrain agricultural production in 2026

In northern areas of the country, harvesting of the 2025 millet and sorghum crops was completed last November and production is estimated at near-average levels. In central and southern areas, harvesting of maize, the main staple cereal, was also completed last November and production benefited from generally adequate rainfall amounts. Localized flooding between August and September 2025 adversely affected yields in several areas of the country, particularly the southern prefectures of Basse‑Kotto, Mbomou and Ouaka.

Planting of the 2026 maize crop is expected to start in March and weather forecasts between February and May 2026 point to high likelihood of below-average rainfall amounts. Conflicts and displacements are expected to continue in 2026, affecting agricultural activities, limiting farmers’ access to crop growing areas and inputs, increasing dependence on food imports and constraining household access to food.

Prices of imported rice above year-earlier values in December 2025

Retail prices of imported rice increased between April and December 2025, when they were about 10 percent above their year-earlier levels, mainly due to reduced imports through river corridors from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the Republic of the Congo. By contrast, retail prices of locally produced maize declined by up to 20 percent between December 2024 and December 2025, reflecting an improved market supply.

About 2.3 million people estimated to be severely acute food insecure in 2026

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, published last November, about 1.9 million people (almost 30 percent of the analysed population) are estimated to face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 [Crisis] or above) between September 2025 and March 2026, including 269 000 people classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), driven by conflict, insecurity and limited agricultural production. Between April and August 2026, the food security situation is expected to deteriorate, with about 2.29 million people (35 percent of the analysed population) projected face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above, including 400 000 people in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), as of December 2025, more than 427 000 people were currently displaced in southeastern, northeastern and northwestern parts of the country, due to armed violence and civil unrest that negatively affects their food security situation by limiting access to markets and livelihoods. Displaced populations remain particularly vulnerable due to limited access to livelihoods and markets.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .