Reference Date: 29-September-2023

Below‑average 2023 cereal harvest

Harvesting of the 2023 main season cereal crops, mostly maize and sorghum, was completed in June. Total cereal production is estimated at 73 000 tonnes in 2023, about 15 percent below the five‑year average, reflecting lower‑than‑average rainfall amounts and an uneven temporal distribution. High temperatures during the cropping season also exacerbated the effects of reduced rainfall on crop yields.

Based on remote sensing data from September, vegetation conditions in grazing areas are generally poor across large parts of the country, due to recent high temperatures and heatwaves. Livestock production is likely to be negatively affected by this situation, with potential economic consequences as it contributes to about 80 percent to the agricultural Gross domestic product (GDP).

Looking ahead to the next season, the prevailing El Niño event is expected to bring drier‑than‑average weather conditions between October 2023 and June 2024, posing a downside risk to cereal and livestock production.

Food inflation rates declined throughout 2023

The annual food inflation rate slowed throughout 2023 and was estimated at 9 percent in August 2023, down from 13 percent a year earlier, in particular due to easing bread and cereal prices. In consideration that the country imports the bulk of its national cereal requirements, the deceleration in price growth largely reflects a decline in commodity prices on the international market and a relatively stable exchange rate.

Food insecurity persists in localized pockets

According to the government’s latest livelihood assessment, released in July 2023, almost 37 000 people are estimated to be in need of food assistance until at least March 2024. The current prevalence of food insecurity is marginally lower than the number estimated in the previous year.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .