Reference Date: 19-November-2024

Plantings of 2025 cereal crops forecast at below-average level due to lack of diesel

The harvest of the 2024 minor maize winter crops finalized last September. The outcome is estimated below the average, as low rainfall amounts in July negatively affected maize at the flowering and grain-filling stages. Despite above-average rains in August in the key producing Santa Cruz Department that partially improved crop conditions, yields remained below-average. Aggregate maize production in 2024, including the dryness-affected main summer season crops that were harvested in the second quarter of the year, is forecast at a below-average level of 960 000 tonnes.

Harvests of 2024 wheat and sorghum main season crops, accounting for about 70 percent of the annual production, ended last September and the outturn is anticipated below the average as dry weather conditions and high production costs at the beginning of the season reduced plantings and curbed yields.

As of November 2024, planting operations of the 2025 main maize summer season crop, that accounts for about 75 percent of the total production, are underway, concomitantly with sowings of the minor wheat and sorghum crops. The lack of diesel and high imported input costs are expected to limit plantings, despite the newly introduced zero-tariff import regime for the main agricultural inputs. The instability of the boliviano against the United States dollar deters investors from providing adequate financing, further curbing farmers’ sowing intentions. However, weather forecasts for the November 2024 to January 2025 period point to near-average precipitations, foreseeing conducive conditions for remaining planting operations.

Cereal import requirements estimated at below-average level in 2024/2025 due to United States dollar shortages

Cereal import requirements in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June), mostly wheat, are forecast at 240 000 tonnes, below the previous five-year average, as the lack of United States dollars is likely to hamper the country’s import capacity. However, the expected import level is higher year-on-year, as in September 2024 the government announced the temporary waiver of import tariffs on wheat, wheat flour, rice and maize until the end of the year.

In September 2024, food inflation reached highest peak since November 2019

Retail prices of rice rose for the fifth consecutive month in Santa Cruz in September 2024 and they were about 30 percent above their level of 12 months before, reflecting the limited market supply as drought affected the 2024 paddy production. Retail prices of wheat flour rose continuously from last May on account of the below-average 2024 production generated by dryness and diesel shortages. Wheat flour prices were 15 percent higher year-on-year in September 2024. Prices of chicken meat showed a slight month-on-month decline in September, after the government announced the removal of import tariffs for yellow maize, the main feed component, and started commercializing additional poultry supplies to La Paz market sellers at fixed prices through EMAPA, the public Entity for Food Production Support. This measure prevented further price increases of poultry products as the sector was affected by high mortality rates due to high temperatures.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .