Reference Date: 10-May-2024

Harvest of winter wheat crops expected to begin in July 2024

Sowing of 2024 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and triticale, took place in early October 2023 under favourable weather conditions. As of January 2024, snow coverage was reported to be sufficient to protect crops from frosts and to secure good moisture reserves for early spring 2024 (March ‑ April), when the growth of winter crops resumes and planting of spring crops starts. The harvest of winter crops is expected to begin in July 2024.

Above‑average cereal production obtained in 2023

Harvesting of 2023 winter and spring cereal crops finalized in August and November 2023, respectively. Aggregate 2023 cereal production is estimated at about 7.3 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average. According to preliminary official data, the output of wheat, barley and cereals NES (mainly triticale) is set at 2.4 million, 1.15 million and 1.4 million tonnes, respectively.

Import requirements in 2023/24 forecast at near‑average level

In the 2023/24 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements are forecast at about 600 000 tonnes, near the five ‑ year average volume. Wheat, maize and barley import requirements are forecast at 350 000 tonnes, 50 000 tonnes and 100 000 tonnes, respectively, near the average level.

Prices of wheat flour higher than year earlier

According to the Eurasian Development Bank, national inflation is forecast to increase from 5.8 percent in 2023 to 6 percent in 2024, due to the weakening of the exchange rate and the growth in domestic demand of commodities.

The national average retail prices of wheat flour were generally stable between May and October 2023. Then, from October onwards, they increased moderately, and, in January 2024, prices were 4.3 percent above the previous year’s level.

National average retail prices of potatoes, another food staple in the country, seasonally declined between July and November 2023, following the harvest of new tubers. However, in January 2024, prices of potatoes were 12.6 percent below the previous year’s level.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .

Data provided by the National Statistical Committee and the Research and Practical Centre of the NAS of Belarus for Arable Farming upon official request.