Reference Date: 18-October-2024

Cereal production in 2024 forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting of the 2024 main season maize crop concluded in September in southern bimodal rainfall areas, which account for about half of the domestic maize output. In most areas, cumulative rainfall amounts between March and July were generally adequate to satisfy crop water requirements, supporting yields. In some parts of southern coastal regions, prolonged dry spells between June and July affected maize crops during critical stages of development, leading to localized production losses. Planting of the second season maize crop was completed by the end of September.

In northern unimodal rainfall areas, harvesting operations of 2024 coarse grain crops just started in October. Near‑average cumulative rainfall amounts between April and September supported crop establishment and development in most cereal‑producing areas. However, persistent pockets of dryness led to localized crop losses in the departments of Alibori, Atakora and Borgou. Furthermore, civil insecurity continued to disrupt agricultural activities in parts of the departments of Alibori and Atakora, which resulted in localized production shortfalls.

The 2024 aggregate cereal production, including the output of the second season maize crop, to be harvested between December 2024 and January 2025, is forecast at nearly 2.9 million tonnes, about 22 percent above the five‑year average.

Prices of key food staples higher on a yearly basis

Following increases of between 40 and 65 percent from January to April 2024, retail prices of locally produced maize, the most consumed cereal in the country, showed mixed trends between May and August 2024. In August 2024, prices of maize were up to 25 percent higher on a yearly basis across the country.

Retail prices of imported rice increased by 10 to 15 percent between January and May 2024, and subsequently, remained stable until August 2024, when they were 10 to 20 percent above their year‑earlier levels. The elevated prices of imported rice are partially due to high prices on the international market.

The elevated prices of cereals reflect high production and transport costs, in particular due to the increased price of fuel informally imported from Nigeria. Furthermore, strong export demand from neighbouring countries supported the higher year‑on‑year prices of cereals. In May 2024, as a measure to contain further price increases, the government banned, until further notice, the export of basic food commodities, including maize, rice, millet and sorghum.

Over 309 000 people acutely food insecure during 2024 lean season

According to the March 2024 Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, over 309 000 people were estimated to face acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2024 lean season period. This shows a substantial decrease in the number of acutely food insecure people compared to the same period in 2023, when about 412 000 people were estimated to be in need of humanitarian assistance. However, this improvement can be mainly attributed to variations in coverage between the 2023 and 2024 analyses, with the population analysed decreasing by nearly a quarter in the 2024 projection.

The spread of violence by non‑state armed groups from central Sahel into northern areas of the country, mainly the regions of Atakora and Alibori, continues to disrupt agricultural activities and cause population displacement. In addition, these regions host the majority of the 17 000 refugees and asylum seekers that sought shelter in the country as of August 2024, which has exerted significant pressure on local food stocks and livelihoods.

New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2024 are expected to be released by the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS) in December.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:

FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .