Reference Date: 11-November-2024

Delayed onset of the 2024 (September‑November) short‑rains season

The onset of the 2024 short‑rains season, which normally extends from September to November, was delayed by about two weeks, delaying planting operations and affecting the germination of early planted crops. Above-average precipitation amounts since mid‑September improved vegetation conditions of crops to be harvested between December 2024 and January 2025. According to the latest weather forecast by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development’s (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC), precipitation amounts during the remainder of the rainy season are expected at below‑average levels, with a likely negative impact on yields of 2025A crops. Rainfall performance in the next weeks will be crucial for crop development and a close monitoring is warranted.

Average cereal output expected in 2024

Harvesting of 2024C season crops, accounting for about 15 percent of annual production, is currently underway in marshlands and irrigated areas and will conclude in November. Crop production prospects are overall favourable as yields were boosted by abundant precipitation amounts received during the second half of September which recharged water sources and by an increased use of improved maize seeds and fertilizers due government subsidies.

Harvesting of 2024B main season crops, accounting for about 50 percent of the annual crop output, was concluded last July, while 2024A season crops, representing about 35 percent of the annual crop production, were gathered in December 2023 and January 2024. Production of 2024B and A season cereals (maize, sorghum and rice) and tubers (cassava and sweet potatoes) is estimated at average levels. During both cropping seasons, above‑average rainfall amounts boosted yields, but triggered floods and the overflow of Lake Tanganyika which resulted in localized crop losses. Beans were significantly affected by moisture excess and production is estimated at below‑average levels.

Aggregate cereal production in 2024 is forecast at an average level of 460 000 tonnes.

Prices of maize around their year-earlier levels

Prices of maize increased by 20−50 percent between May and September 2024 despite the commercialization of the newly harvested 2024B season crops in June and July. The unseasonal price increase was due to the continuous depreciation of the national currency, which inflated agricultural production and transport costs. However, despite the recent increases, prices of maize in September remained around their year-earlier levels, due to adequate carryover stocks.

Prices of beans in September 2024 were 5−10 percent higher year‑on‑year as the impact of macroeconomic challenges was compounded by a reduced production in 2024.

Concerns for the food security situation in western areas

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 1.2 million people (10 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between June and September 2024. The highest prevalence of food insecurity is reported in the western Congo Nil Ridge livelihood zone, affected by the livelihood losses caused by the overflow of Lake Tanganyika, where 15 percent of the population was estimated to be in IPC Phase 3.

The main drivers of food insecurity are protracted macroeconomic challenges resulting in high inflation and livelihood losses due to floods.

There are concerns for the food security situation of about 88 000 internally displaced persons (IDPs), mainly displaced by natural disasters, and for about 89 000 refugees and asylum seekers from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which have limited livelihood opportunities and need to rely on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .