Reference Date: 05-February-2026

2026A season crop production expected at below-average level due to insufficient rains

Harvesting of the 2026A season crops, representing about 35 percent of the annual crop production, is underway and will conclude in February. The September to November short rainy season was characterized by a poor performance. Rains started late in mid-September, disrupting planting operations and affecting the germination of early planted crops. After adequate precipitation in October, well below-average amounts in November hampered crop maturation in several areas. As a result, crop production is forecast at below-average levels. The most significant production shortfalls are reported in Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands and in Imbo Plains, the westernmost areas of the country, where about 50 and 80 percent of the maize and beans crops have been lost.

Below-average 2025 cereal production mainly due to poor performance of 2025B cropping season

The February to May long rainy season was characterized by an erratic temporal distribution of precipitation. Cumulative rainfall amounts in February and March were up to 40 percent below average, affecting crop germination and development. Although precipitation amounts were above‑average in April and May, damage to crops in several areas was irreversible and the main 2025B harvest, representing about 50 percent of the annual crop production which concluded in July, was estimated at below‑average levels.

By contrast, the 2025C season harvest, accounting for about 15 percent of the annual crop output and gathered in September in marshlands and irrigated areas, was estimated at above-average levels. This positive outcome was driven by abundant rains in August, which recharged water sources, as well as by government support through distributions of subsidized fertilizers and seeds, and investments in irrigation infrastructure, implemented in partnership with international organizations, including FAO.

Earlier, production of 2025A season crops, representing about 35 percent of the annual crop output and harvested in December 2024 and January 2025, was also estimated at above-average levels due to favourable weather conditions.

Accordingly, 2025 aggregate cereal production is put at about 789 000 tonnes, 5 percent below the average of the previous five years, mainly as a result of the poor performance of the main 2025B harvest.

Prices of maize and beans below year‑earlier levels in December 2025

The national average retail price of maize declined by about 45 percent between December 2024, when they were at record levels, and May 2025, as 2025A season crops increased market availability. Subsequently, prices seasonally increased by about 10 percent between May and June and declined by just 3 percent in July with the commercialization of 2025B crops, due to the poor performance of the cropping season. Prices seasonally increased by 23 percent between July and December, when they were 27 percent below their year-earlier levels.

In December 2025, the national average retail price of beans, an important staple in the local diet, was 28 percent lower year‑on‑year.

Concerns for food security situation in areas affected by sharply reduced 2026A harvests and for refugees from Democratic Republic of Congo

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 1.14 million people (9 percent of the analysed population) are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) levels of acute food insecurity between January and March 2026. The main drivers of food insecurity are livelihood losses due to climatic shocks and protracted macroeconomic challenges. Concerns exist for vulnerable households in the Eastern Lowlands, Northern Lowlands and in the Imbo Plains, as significant losses of 2026A season crops will affect food availability.

There are also concerns regarding the food security situation of refugees from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The intensification of conflict in early December 2025 resulted in a sharp increase in refugee arrivals, with an estimated 92 000 people entering Burundi during the month, bringing the total refugee caseload to around 172 000. This influx has further strained an already fragile humanitarian situation, with refugees having limited livelihood opportunities and mainly relying on humanitarian assistance.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .