Reference Date: 30-April-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 cereal crops

Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, is ongoing under favourable weather conditions and the harvest is expected to start in June 2026. In most producing areas of the departments of Kura‑Aras and Karabakh, average to above‑average precipitation amounts between September and October 2025 supported planting operations and the establishment of early‑planted crops. Weather in May 2026 points to high likelihood of above‑average rainfall amounts, which are expected to boost soil moisture levels and support yield development.

Plantings of the 2026 spring cereals began in early March under overall favourable weather conditions.

Cereal production in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

Aggregate cereal production in 2025, mainly wheat and barley, is estimated at about 3.3 million tonnes, near the five‑year average level. The output reflects both a large planted area and generally favourable weather conditions that supported yields.

Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast at near‑average level

In the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), total cereal import requirements, mainly wheat, are forecast at a below‑average level of 1.4 million tonnes, supported by a near‑average level of domestic production in 2025.

Retail prices of wheat stable year‑on‑year

Retail prices of wheat flour have remained generally stable in monitored markets between April 2025 and February 2026, reflecting adequate domestic availability, and were near their year‑earlier values as of February 2026. The exemption from the 18 percent value added tax (VAT) on wheat imports and sales is contributing to the stability of domestic wheat prices. Introduced in January 2017 and scheduled to remain in force until January 2027, the measure is expected to continue supporting price stability over the medium term.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .