Reference Date: 29-May-2024

Despite above‑average plantings, average maize output expected in 2024 following severe disease outbreak

Harvesting of the 2024 maize crop is ongoing and production is officially anticipated at a near‑average level of 55 million tonnes. Despite the area sown that was estimated to be 10 percent above the average, a stunt disease (spiroplasma) transmitted by leafhoppers significantly affected yields, causing severe crop losses. The disease affected particularly the late‑sown crops, which account for nearly 70 percent of the annual production.

Planting of 2024 wheat and barley crops, to be harvested from November 2024, will start in June. Wheat area sown is officially forecast at 6.15 million hectares, nearly 5 percent below the average, but above the 2022 and 2023 levels. The yearly increase is due to favourable soil moisture and production costs that started to decline from their previously high levels, albeit slowly. Official forecasts point to average barley plantings of 1.5 million hectares. Below‑average rainfall amounts are forecast between July and September 2024, associated with La Niña phenomenon, with negative effects on crop emergence and vegetative development.

Maize exports preliminarily forecast at average levels in 2024/25 marketing year

Exports of maize, the country’s major exportable cereal commodity, are forecast at a near‑average level of 35 million tonnes in the 2024/25 marketing year (March/February). This represents a sharp rebound from the 2023/24 low levels, as production in 2024 is expected to increase substantially compared to the drought‑stricken 2023 output.

Exports of wheat are anticipated at 9.5 million tonnes in the 2023/24 marketing year (December/November), about 15 percent below the average, as a result of a below‑average wheat production in 2023. In 2024/25, exports of wheat are likely to remain at below‑average levels on account of unfavourable production prospects for the 2024 wheat crops, due to below‑average plantings and expectations of dry weather conditions during the season.

National annual food inflation rate reached 290 percent in April 2024

After short‑lived declines in February and March 2024, in line with downward trends in international markets, wholesale prices of wheat grain rose by nearly 10 percent month‑on‑month in April 2024, weighed by tight seasonal supplies. Prices were about 180 percent higher than a year earlier, following two consecutive years of below‑average harvests. Despite the ongoing harvest, prices of yellow maize rose in March and April 2024, mainly due to the concerns about the severity of plague‑induced losses on 2024 crops. Prices in April were about 200 percent above their year‑earlier levels due to tight supplies from the drought‑stricken 2023 production. The sharp devaluation of the Argentine peso from ARS 364 to ARS 800/USD 1 in December 2023, also contributed to the high levels of prices.

Overall, retail prices of most food items are steadily rising, amid a difficult macroeconomic situation. In April 2024, the annual inflation rate of food and non‑alcoholic beverages was estimated at about 290 percent at national level. High food prices have reduced the purchasing power of vulnerable households, limiting their access to food. However, some food commodities showed significant year‑on‑year differences in retail prices, such as rice: 800 percent, wheat flour: 340 percent, bread: 335 percent and beef meat: 305 percent.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .