Reference Date: 05-February-2026

Wheat production in 2025 officially estimated at record high levels

The harvest of 2025 wheat and barley crops finalized in January 2026. According to official sources, wheat output is estimated at a record high level of 27.8 million tonnes. Higher year-on-year prices at planting time encouraged farmers’ decision to plant, resulting in above-average plantings. Crop yields are estimated at record high levels, due to adequate precipitation amounts from July to September 2025 that provided conducive conditions for crop development across the season. Adequate use of agricultural technology, fertilizers and pesticides also boosted productivity. For similar reasons, yields of barley were officially reported at a record high level. Despite below-average plantings due to torrential rains at the beginning of the season, the 2025 barley production is estimated at 5.6 million tonnes, 16 percent above the five-year average. Overall, cereal production in 2025, including maize harvested in March 2025, is anticipated at 90.6 million tonnes, about 9 percent above the previous five-year average.

Sowing of the 2026 maize crop, to be harvested from March 2026, concluded in central regions and are heading to completion in northern areas. The area sown is officially estimated to be about 5 percent above average, rebounding from the previous year’s low acreage. Remote sensing data show good vegetation conditions, although high temperatures have negatively affected crops in central Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Entre Ríos provinces. Weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average rainfall amounts in February and March 2026 which are expected to provide conducive conditions for crops at flowering and grain-filling stages.

Wheat export forecast 30 percent above average due to record high production in 2025

In the 2025/26 marketing year (March/February), exports of maize, the major exportable cereal commodity, are expected at a slightly below-average level of 33 million tonnes, about 8 percent below the 2024/25 level. The anticipated year-on-year decline reflects the 2025 below-average maize outturn as concerns for the leafhopper-transmitted stunt disease discouraged plantings. In addition, weakening international prices of yellow maize from February to June 2025 reduced export profitability.

Wheat exports are forecast at 13 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year (December/November), about 30 percent above the five-year average. This reflects the ample exportable surplus from the record 2025 production.

Prices of yellow maize and wheat above previous year’s level

After weakening in October and November 2025 with the start of the harvest, wheat prices increased in December 2025, pressured by strong export demand from Brazil, Indonesia and China (mainland). Compared to the previous year, prices were up to 30 percent higher in December 2025 due to large exports in the first ten months of the year, which were 35 percent above average.

Wholesale prices of yellow maize steadily increased from June to December 2025, when they were about 50 percent above their level of one year earlier, pressured by the limited domestic supply due to a below-average production harvested in 2025 as well as the depreciation trend of the national currency with respect to the United States dollar.

After contracting from January to August 2025, the annual inflation rate of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased from September to December 2025 when it was estimated at 32.2 percent at the national level. In the second half of 2025, retail prices of beef meet, bread and wheat flour rose steadily and were up to 60 percent higher year-on-year in December 2025. A significant exception was white rice, of which retail prices declined continuously from July to November 2025 due to the above-average paddy output harvested in 2025. In December 2025, prices of rice showed a slight seasonal increase compared to the previous month but remained about 22 percent below their previous year’s level.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .