Reference Date: 29-November-2023

Dry weather conditions forecast for 2023/24 cropping season

A late onset of seasonal rains, by up to three dekads in some localized central areas, has delayed plantings of 2024 cereal crops. Large portions of the country have received less than 40 percent of the average total rainfall amounts in October 2023. Driven by the prevailing El Niño event, weather forecasts for the remainder of the season (November 2023 to March 2024) point to a high probability of continued below‑average rainfall amounts and warmer temperatures in the main cereal‑producing southern and central provinces. In the north, where cereal production accounts for less than one‑fifth of the total national maize output, the rainfall outlook is more favourable. In consideration of a likely shorter cropping season, given the delayed start of plantings, and based on the high likelihood of reduced seasonal rainfall amounts, production prospects for the 2024 cereal crops are generally unfavourable.

Annual inflation rate accelerated from mid‑2023

According to the latest data by the Instituto Nacional de Estatística (INE), the annual inflation rate accelerated to 17 percent in October 2023, following a one‑year low of 11 percent in April. The annual food inflation rate also increased to 17 percent in October 2023, having edged up consistently since mid‑year.

Part of the growth in prices in 2023 is attributed to a depreciation of the national currency (kwanza) against the United States dollar between May and July 2023. In addition, the removal of fuel subsidies in June 2023 added further inflationary pressure, pushing up food production and distribution costs.

Poor food security conditions expected to persist in southern provinces

Current projections from the Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) indicate that up to 1.5 million people are expected to face severe acute food insecurity until at least the second quarter of 2024, a similar number to the previous year. Southern provinces are the most affected, largely due to the effect of several consecutive years of drought conditions and below‑average harvests. If current rainfall forecasts materialize in 2023/24, southern provinces are anticipated to register a successive poor agricultural season, likely intensifying local food insecurity conditions. The high inflation rates, that are straining households’ resources, are an additional factor aggravating food insecurity.

With the aim to support vulnerable households, the government has increased the number of households under its social safety net programme by about 7 percent in 2023, whilst packages of agricultural inputs, including seeds and fertilizers, are being distributed to about 50 percent of smallholders farmers.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .