Reference Date: 29-May-2024

Well above‑average 2024 maize output expected due to record area sown

The 2024 maize crop is being harvested and the record‑high planted area is likely to result in a well above‑average production, a sharp rebound from the 2023 drought‑stricken harvest. Weather conditions have been generally conducive for crop development and yields, despite some delays in harvesting operations due to above‑average rainfall amounts since mid‑March 2024.

Harvesting operations of the 2024 paddy crop have virtually completed and production is preliminarily expected to be slightly below average. This is due to below‑average crop yields, affected by excessive rainfall amounts during the crop maturation and harvesting period, which offset the slightly above‑average plantings, driven by year‑on‑year higher price levels at planting time. The Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries declared an emergency on 21 May 2024 due to excessive rainfall in April and May, and will provide the Agricultural Emergency Fund to the affected producers.

Planting operations of the 2024 wheat crop are ongoing at a slow pace due to high soil moisture. Although official forecasts are not available yet, the area planted is expected to remain at an above‑average level, but declining compared to the previous year, due to current low prices in domestic and international markets, and high soil saturation. Average precipitation amounts are forecast between June and September 2024, boosting yield expectations.

Above‑average cereal exports forecast in 2024/25 marketing year

Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a well above‑average level of 2 million tonnes, mainly due to the expected large exportable surpluses of wheat and maize. Near‑average rice exports are expected in 2024/25.

Cereal import requirements are forecast at below‑average levels in 2024/25, well below 2023/24, when maize imports were record high due to severe production shortfalls.

Prices of maize and wheat well below year‑earlier levels in April 2024

Wholesale prices of maize have declined sharply in the first quarter of the year, with the commercialization of the newly harvested grains. In April 2024, they were more than 45 percent down from a year before, reflecting ample supply from record high imports in 2023/24, which more than offset the domestic production shortfalls in 2023.

After sharply declining in line with seasonal trends in December 2023 and January 2024, prices of wheat grain have been overall stable between February and April. Prices were about 30 percent lower year‑on‑year due to an above‑average 2023 wheat production.

Prices of rice weakened for the sixth consecutive month in April 2024, with markets adequately supplied. However, prices were nearly 15 percent higher year‑on‑year, on account of the strong international demand.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .