Reference Date: 28-January-2026

Cereal production estimated 35 percent above average in 2025

The harvest of the 2025 wheat crop has concluded recently. Although official estimates are not available yet, production is preliminarily estimated at 1.3 million tonnes, about 8 percent above the previous five‑year average, due to above‑average plantings. However, the 2025 wheat output and area sown represent a decline compared to a year before, when a bumper harvest was attained.

Production of 2025 paddy and maize crops, harvested in April/May 2025, was above average mainly due to large plantings, following high prices of grains at planting time. Overall, aggregate cereal production in 2025 is estimated at 6 million tonnes, about 35 percent above average.

Paddy and maize sowings estimated above average in 2026

The 2026 paddy and maize crops are currently at vegetative and flowering stages. Paddy plantings are estimated at 10 percent above average, but lower than the record high registered in 2025. The area sown with maize has increased for the third consecutive year and it is estimated at well above‑average levels, reflecting strong demand by the domestic feed industry. Satellite imagery indicates poor vegetative conditions (NDVI anomaly map), especially in the key paddy producing southeastern region, due to below-average rainfall amounts in November and December 2025. However, weather forecasts point to a high likelihood of average precipitation amounts during the February‑April 2026 period that are expected to improve yield prospects.

Average cereal exports anticipated in 2025/26

Cereal export volumes in the 2025/26 marketing year (April/March) are forecast at a near-average level of 2.1 million tonnes, as low exports of barley are expected to be compensated by above-average exports of wheat and rice. Due to the above‑average cereal production in 2025, cereal import requirements in 2025/26 are anticipated at below‑average levels.

Cereal prices lower year‑on‑year in December 2025

Prices of rice sharply dropped between May and July 2025 following commercialization of the bumper output. Since then, prices have remained stable until the end of the year at levels 42 percent lower year‑on‑year. The low level of prices reflects ample domestic availability as well as lower international prices.

After a declining trend between March and September 2025 due to the above‑average production in 2025, prices of yellow maize rose for the third consecutive month in December 2025 and they were about 15 percent lower year‑on‑year.

Wholesale prices of wheat grain have been generally weakening since November 2024, reflecting an above‑average production in 2024 and 2025. As a result, prices in December 2025 were nearly 15 percent below their year‑earlier levels.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .