Reference Date: 09-October-2024

Production of main 2024 Gu season crops affected by erratic rains and pests

The 2024 main Gu season crops, normally accounting for about 60 percent of the country's total annual cereal output, were harvested last July. Cereal production is estimated at 64 400 tonnes, including 14 100 tonnes of off-season crops, recently gathered in riverine areas of Shabelle Valley (Lower Juba, Middle Juba, Middle Shabelle and Gedo regions). The aggregate Gu output is 18 percent below last year’s production and 8 percent above the five-year average, which includes several consecutive poor harvests in recent years.

The April-June Gu rainy season was characterized by average to above-average rainfall amounts, but precipitation had an erratic temporal distribution. An early onset of seasonal rains in late March was followed by abundant precipitation amounts in April which benefited crop establishment, but an early cessation of the rains in May severely affected crop development and yields. According to FAO’s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), in early July, at the beginning of harvesting operations, between 25 and 85 percent of the cropland was affected by severe drought in Lower and Middle Shabelle regions, the main maize producing areas, as well as in the sorghum belt in Bay Region.

Crop pests, including stemborers, bush crickets and quelea birds contributed to yield reduction.

Planting of the secondary 2024 Deyr season crops, for harvest in January 2025, is currently underway. The October to December rains are forecast by the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) at below ‑ average levels, with a likely negative effect on yields. A close monitoring of weather conditions is warranted.

Above‑average rangeland conditions benefitting livestock

In central and northern pastoral areas, despite their erratic temporal distribution, above-average Gu rains significantly improved rangeland conditions, with a positive impact on livestock body conditions due to adequate availability of pasture and water. Vegetation health entered the July to September dry season at well above‑average levels (ASI map for grassland) and, despite some seasonal declines, as of mid-September, they were still favourable. Good animal body conditions have resulted in increased conception rates, herd sizes and milk production.

Prices of cereals around year-earlier levels due to adequate domestic availability

Prices of locally grown maize and sorghum seasonally declined in several monitored markets by 10 to 20 percent between June and August with the commercialization of the newly harvested Gu crops. Overall, prices of cereals in August were around their year-earlier levels despite the poor performance of the 2024 Gu harvest, due to adequate carryover stocks from the above-average cereal production in 2023.

Food security situation expected to deteriorate in late 2024 due to unfavourable weather conditions

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, about 3.6 million people (19 percent of the analyzed population) were estimated to face severe acute food insecurity between July and September 2024.

With weather forecasts pointing to below-average precipitation amounts during the October to December Deyr rainy season, the number of people affected by severe acute food insecurity is projected to increase to 4.4 million between October and December 2024, due to the negative impact of dry weather conditions on crops, livestock and agricultural employment opportunities.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .