Reference Date: 06-October-2025

Favourable rainfall outlook boosts 2026 cereal production prospects

Planting of the 2026 cereal crops is expected to begin in October, with the harvesting period usually starting in the following April. Weather conditions play a key role in determining cereal production levels as only a small fraction of agricultural land is equipped for irrigation. Weather forecasts for the current cropping season point to a high probability of average to above‑average rainfall amounts between October 2025 and March 2026. This outlook is linked to the expected development of La Niña conditions towards the end of the year, which are forecast to continue into early 2026, pointing to generally favourable production prospects for the 2026 cereal crops.

However, there are some downside risks to agricultural production in 2026. The frequency of cyclone activity tends to increase during La Niña phases, raising the chance of localized floods and consequent damage to standing crops. Additionally, despite the high probability of overall ample seasonal rains, drier‑than‑normal conditions in some southern and central provinces at the end of September, just prior to the planting period, and forecasts indicating limited rainfall in October, could hinder or delay planting activities. Moreover, insecurity and attacks by non‑state armed groups (NSAGs) in northern provinces, particularly in Cabo Delgado, continue to hinder agricultural activity. An estimated 461 000 people remain internally displaced due to the ongoing violence, preventing many households from engaging in farming and other income‑generating activities.

Food price inflation accelerated in August 2025

The annual food inflation rate remained stable between April and July 2025, at an estimated 9 percent, but rose to 12 percent in August 2025. As reported by the World Food Programme (WFP) , prices of maize meal and groundnuts, key food staples, increased by about 20 percent year‑on‑year as of June 2025, while the cost of a food basket also rose across all regions, particularly in the south where it increased by almost 40 percent in one year.

Levels of acute food insecurity remain high, especially in conflict‑affected northern regions

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis released in September 2025, about 2.67 million people are estimated to face acute food insecurity (Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between October 2025 and March 2026, including 170 183 people experiencing Phase 4 (Emergency) levels. This represents 23 percent of the analysed population, a proportion only marginally below the 24 percent) estimated in the same period in 2024/25.

The highest levels of acute food insecurity are concentrated in the northern conflict‑affected provinces of Cabo Delgado and Nampula. In these provinces, conflict‑displaced households face significant challenges in engaging in income‑generating activities, including farming. Many depend on humanitarian food assistance, which has also been disrupted by insecurity. In central provinces, weather shocks have been the main driver of acute food insecurity and many households are expected to exhaust their food reserves earlier than normal due to localized shortfalls in agricultural production. High food prices are further constraining food access, particularly for low‑income households, aggravating the acute food insecurity situation across the country.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .