Reference Date: 13-February-2026

Cyclones and dryness weigh on production prospects of 2026 cereal crops

Planting of the main season paddy crop normally stretches from November to February, with the harvest period typically starting in May. Seasonal rains normally begin around November across most of the country, but in 2025 their onset was delayed in southern and, particularly, in western areas by up to three dekads and overall rainfall distribution has been highly uneven. Rainfall deficits have been observed in the south, which is a relatively minor rice-producing area. In contrast, heavy rainfall and localized flooding were reported in northern areas in late January and early February 2026, particularly in northwestern regions that are more important rice-producing areas.

The recent heavy rains were associated with Tropical Cyclone Fytia, which made landfall on 31 January in the northwestern region of Boeny, where rainfall amounts in the last dekad of January were more than 20 percent above the long-term average. At the time of the cyclone’s landfall, paddy crops in these regions were predominantly at the early establishment and early vegetative stages, making them vulnerable to flood damage, due to their limited rooting systems and low crop height. Full submergence of standing crops is likely to have occurred in low-lying fields especially in riverine areas. Although detailed information on crop damage and losses is not yet available, it is likely that there have been limited impacts on yields where flooding lasted only a few days, while prolonged submergence is likely to result in significant damage and localized crop failure.

Tropical Cyclone Gezani made landfall on 10 February, bringing additional heavy rainfall and increasing the risk of further flooding in parts of the country already affected by Cyclone Fytia, potentially compounding earlier crop damage. As opposed to Cylone Fytia, Cyclone Gezani made landfall on the eastern coast and traversed central highland regions, which constitute key paddy producing regions. These successive cyclones may cumulatively strain national response capacities and recovery efforts.

Although there are still several months until the end of the 2026 crop season, the erratic rainfall, successive cyclones and dry weather conditions in the south are dampening cereal production prospects and increasing the likelihood of a second consecutive below-average paddy harvest in 2026.

Rice prices higher in 2025

An estimated decrease in domestic rice production in 2025 contributed to higher year-on-year retail prices, with the latest price data from INSTAT indicating that rice prices in November 2025 were about 12 percent higher than a year earlier.

In the 2025 calendar year, the volume of imported rice rose considerably above the import level recorded in 2024. Declines in international rice quotations, including India and Pakistan, two key import sources for the country, helped temper domestic price increases, especially as they occurred against a backdrop of a comparatively stable national currency in 2025.

A potential inflationary risk in the near-term stems from the effects of the erratic weather during the current season, which could result in a reduced harvest this year.

Cyclones and floods increase immediate humanitarian needs

According to the latest Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) analysis, approximately 1.8 million people are projected to face IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) or above levels of acute food insecurity between February and April 2026, including 71 000 people facing IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). The overall figure represents 19 percent of the analysed population, similar to the 18 percent estimated during the same period in 2025.

These conditions are driven by a combination of factors, primarily weather shocks, which have disrupted agricultural activities and are also weighing on production prospects of the 2026 harvest, as well as limited income‑earning opportunities and high food prices that are constraining food access for resource‑poor households.

According to preliminary national assessments, flooding caused by Cyclone Fytia in January and early February 2026 displaced more than 31 000 people , while an estimated 93 000 people require urgent humanitarian assistance. These numbers risk increasing with the impact of Cyclone Gezani, which brought heavy rainfall and triggered a declaration of a state of national disaster on 12 February by the government.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .