Reference Date: 02-February-2026

Production of 2025 main wet season paddy crop forecast at above‑average level

Harvesting of the 2025 main wet season paddy crop, accounting for about 70 percent of the annual output, finalized in January 2026 and production is estimated at an above‑average level. The area planted is officially estimated at a record level of 3.2 million tonnes, mainly supported by government assistance to paddy farmers, including the provision of low interest rates loans and grants as well as investments in agricultural infrastructures. Cumulative precipitation amounts during the May to November 2025 rainy season were generally adequate across the main rice producing southern and central provinces, supporting above‑average yields. Localized crop losses occurred in some northern areas, particularly in parts of Battambang, Oddar Meanchey and Siem Reap provinces, due to below‑average precipitation amounts in July and August 2025, and to flooding in lowland areas of the Mekong River, triggered by abundant precipitation amounts in upstream areas. The 2025 secondary dry season paddy crop, accounting for about 30 percent of the annual output, is currently at the vegetative to early reproductive stages of development and harvesting is expected to start in March 2026. The area planted is estimated above the five‑year average but well below 2024’s high level due to soil moisture deficits following below‑average precipitation amounts in November and December 2025 in several rice producing areas, including the provinces of Kandal, Kratie and Prey Veng. In addition, low domestic prices of rice at planting time prompted some farmers to shift paddy land to more profitable crops, including mung beans and sesame. Overall, 2025 aggregate rice production is forecast at 14.6 million tonnes, about 17 percent above the five‑year average. Harvesting of the 2025 main wet season maize crop, accounting for about 80 percent of the annual output, finalized in November 2025 and production is estimated at an average level of 900 000 tonnes. The 2025 secondary dry season maize crop, accounting for about 20 percent of the annual output, will be planted from February 2026 onwards and area planted is expected at an average level.

Exports of rice in 2026 forecast to decline compared to 2025 level

In calendar year 2026, rice exports are forecast at 4.3 million tonnes, down from the 5.1 million tonnes shipped in 2025, owing to increased competition for markets.

Domestic prices of rice lower year‑on‑year in October 2025

Wholesale prices of rice generally declined between October 2024 and October 2025, reflecting ample market availability from the record harvest in 2024 and favourable production prospects for the 2025 main wet season paddy crop. In addition, a reduction in the exports of rice in 2025 compared to 2024 further increased domestic availability, exerting downward pressure on prices. As of October 2025, prices of rice were between 15 and 25 percent lower on a year‑on‑year basis. With the aim of stabilizing domestic prices of rice and safeguarding farmers’ livelihoods, the government announced, in November 2025, the allocation of USD 40 million to purchase paddy from farmers during the harvest period at fair prices.

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This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .