Reference Date: 05-May-2026

Favourable production prospects for 2026 cereal crops

Planting of the 2026 winter cereal crops, mainly wheat and barley, to be harvested from June to August, finalized in November 2025 under favourable weather conditions. Soil moisture levels in most croplands are adequate to support early crop development. Harvesting of the 2025 spring cereal crops, mainly maize and wheat, was completed in October 2025 and aggregate output is estimated at 1.9 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the five‑year average level. Maize production is officially estimated at 742 000 tonnes, close to the average level, reflecting favourable weather conditions during the season that supported yields. Wheat and barley output in 2025 are set at above‑average levels of 600 000 and 500 000 tonnes, respectively, mainly due to high yields.

Wheat import requirements in 2025/26 forecast near five‑year average

Total cereal import requirements in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June) are forecast at a near‑average level of 350 000 tonnes. Wheat import requirements account, on average, for about 95 percent of the total cereal import needs and cover almost half of the domestic demand of wheat for food consumption and milling purposes.

Prices of wheat flour above year‑earlier levels

According to the Internation Monetary Fund (IMF), annual inflation is estimated to have risen from 5.1 percent in 2024 to 6 percent in 2025 and it is projected to increase further to 6.9 percent in 2026 (March estimates), mainly driven by higher food prices and sustained growth in overall consumer prices.

Retail prices of first grade wheat flour sharply increased between March 2025 and November 2025, then remained stable and were up to 6 percent above year‑earlier levels, as of March 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .