Reference Date: 28-January-2026

Cereal output in 2025 estimated at above‑average level

Harvesting operations of the 2025 cereal crops were completed in December 2025. The 2025 rainy season was characterized by a favourable start in late June, with average to above‑average precipitation amounts recorded until mid‑July, supporting planting operations and crop germination. A dry spell in late July affected crops in localized areas, but average cumulative rainfall amounts between August and early October benefited crop development, boosting yields in most regions. Heavy rainfall in August and September triggered flooding and delayed harvesting operations in localized areas, resulting in minor crop losses.

Enhanced and effective governmental support, including the provision of improved seeds, subsidized fertilizers and ploughing machinery, boosted yields across the country and enabled farmers to expand the area planted. In addition, elevated food prices prompted households to increase food production for their own consumption.

The 2025 aggregate cereal production is estimated at about 135 000 tonnes, approximately 20 percent above the average of the previous five years.

Prices of cereals near or above their year‑earlier values in October 2025

Rice is the most consumed cereal in the country. In October 2025, the national average price of imported rice was near its year‑earlier level, while the price of locally produced rice was about 10 percent higher on a yearly basis.

A similar year‑on‑year increase of about 10 percent was reported for the national average price of local maize, whereas prices of other locally produced cereals, including millet and sorghum, were near their year-earlier values in October 2025.

The elevated prices of some cereals were mostly due to the weakness of the local currency, which inflated fuel prices and transport costs.

About 244 000 people acutely food insecure during 2025 lean season

According to the latest available Cadre Harmonisé (CH) analysis, about 244 000 people (10 percent of the analysed population) were estimated to be acutely food insecure (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) during the June to August 2025 lean season period, including over 7 600 people in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). In particular, there are concerns about the food security situation of approximately 10 700 people, whose livelihoods were disrupted by flooding in 2025.

CH estimates of the number of acutely food insecure people for the March to May 2026 period as well as projections for the June to August 2026 lean season are expected to be released in March 2026.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Cadre Harmonisé (CH) https://www.cadreharmonise.org/ .